- Language: English
- Published: July 2012
Poland Metals Report Q4 2012
- Published: October 2012
- 55 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Poland Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's metals industry.
BMI's Poland Metals Report for Q4 2012 examines how trends in external markets as well as domestic manufacturing, particularly the automotive sector, will influence production of steel, copper and lead. It assesses how producers are responding to the short-term depreciation of the zloty as well as long-term issues of resource supply and the latest developments in investment and corporate strategy.
In the first seven months of 2012, Polish crude steel output grew 3.4% y-o-y to 5.3mn tonnes (mnt),
which continued the trend seen in 2010 and 2011 when production rose 12.1% and 10.0%, respectively.
Growth rates are falling as domestic consumption and fixed investment failed to make up for the expected shortfall in exports, which were still below 2008 levels in 2011. Growth has been stimulated by the competitiveness of Polish steelmaking, shored up by a weak zloty against the euro that has enabled the industry to compete effectively on external markets.
In the first seven months of 2012, refined copper production declined 2.6% y-o-y to 335,000 tonnes.
Output suffered as a result of a sharp decline in production in February, but the industry has subsequently sustained a recovery, reaching 49,000 tonnes in July, the best monthly result in over a year. Over the same period, refined lead output rose 10.1% y-o-y to just under 53,400 tonnes. However, after April 2012 monthly output was in decline, reaching 5,700 tonnes in July, the lowest level for a year. The exportoriented automotive industry – the main consumer of lead – is facing a highly challenging environment with lacklustre growth.
Over the last quarter BMI have revised the following forecasts/views:
- BMI maintains its forecast of 2% growth in crude steel output to 8.97mnt in 2012. However, the recovery from 2013 is set to be brisk as Polish industry benefits from the likely stabilisation of the EU market. By 2017, Polish consumption should exceed 14mnt for the first time and increase by 26% over 2011 estimates. This should help push up crude steel output to over 12mnt, up 36%
over the same period.
- Subdued manufacturing growth will tame domestic crude steel consumption, which is forecast to rise just 1.9% in 2012 to 11.27mnt following estimated growth of 10% in 2011.
- Performance in the copper refining sector justifies BMI’s forecast of near zero growth with output at 572,000 tonnes in 2012. The copper industry is faced with falling ore grades and a lack of expansion plans in the Polish copper mining sector. BMI does not envisage significant output growth over the forecast period due to capacity constraints with output unlikely to move much beyond 2011 levels. As such, while copper ore exports will increase, refined copper exports will decline by around 8% in total over 2012-16 reaching around 307,000 tonnes by 2016.
- BMI believes refined lead production will grow 1% to around 112,700 tonnes in 2012. Output should see steady but unremarkable growth over the rest of the forecast period, reaching 118,000 tonnes by 2016. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT 7
Europe Metals Overview 8
Industry Forecasts 14
Table: Poland – Steel Industry Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 15
Table: Poland – Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless otherwise stated) 16
Table: Poland – Refined Copper Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 18
Table: Poland – Refined Lead Consumption & Production ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 20
Macroeconomic Outlook 20
Eurozone Crisis Weighs On Growth Into 2013 20
Table: Poland – Economic Activity 22
Commodities Forecast 23
Steel Price Forecast – Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013 23
Table: Steel Forecast 23
Table: Steel Forecasts 29
Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update 30
Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold 31
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 33
Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 35
Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 37
Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 38
Steel: More Pain Ahead 39
Tin To Outperform 40
Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 42
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 43
Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Poland – Aluminium Market 44
Company Profiles 48
Table: ArcelorMittal – Key Financial Data 51
CMC Zawiercie SA 52
Poland Metals Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
BMI Methodology 54
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 54
Cross Checks 54
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