Poland Autos Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 57
The Poland Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's automotive industry.
Economic instability in Europe continued to limit the expansion of Poland’s autos industry in Q312. This is because around 90% of output from Poland's auto manufacturing facilities is exported, mainly to the EU.
In the first five months of 2012, the value of exports fell by EUR7.75bn (US$9.75bn), as a result of limited overseas demand. As such, it is hardly surprising that the industry has been affected by slow demand for vehicles in Europe and the eurozone. This has prompted Polish carmakers to scale back or suspend production, or even cut jobs. In August 2012, Polish tyre manufacturer TC Debica announced plans to cut its output a further 4%. Swedish commercial vehicle manufacturer Scania and Japanese electronic systems manufacturer Sumitomo Electric both issued redundancy notices in June.
BMI sees growth of almost 3.5% in the sale of new passenger cars in Poland over the course of 2012,
bringing total sales to 331,329. This figure marks a downward revision on our previous forecast of 5%
growth, but remains notably better than the results of 2011, where we saw an overall year-on-year (y-o-y)
decline of 9.72%.
Consumer sentiment is likely to remain restrained over the course of the next 18 months, with continued downward pressure on wages, government cuts, high unemployment, strained household budgets and limited lending. The overall value of Polish auto exports is expected to reach US$16bn over the course of 2012, representing growth of 8.78% over 2011’s figures.
Our long-term outlook for Poland’s autos sector remains positive. Analysts reported some stabilisation in Polish production in July 2012. While the market contracted for the fourth consecutive month,
competitive advantages have enabled it to fare far better than other countries in the region, 4-Traders reports. The country has performed relatively well, even during a period of economic instability in the region. The industry should benefit from strong domestic demand and that from neighbouring emerging markets. According to the ACEA, car demand in Poland was up 12.7% y-o-y in Q112. In addition, a number of automakers, including Italy’s Fiat and General Motors of the US, are looking to the country in order to cut their production costs, and take advantage of comparatively low labour costs in Poland,
and its proximity to other European markets. As such, we expect total vehicle production to pass the 1mn mark by 2014, reaching 1.16mn by the end of our forecast period in 2016.
In addition, suppliers are increasingly looking to Poland, with Japanese tyre manufacturer Bridgestone confirming plans to invest EUR120mn in order to boost radial tyre production in Poland. Furthermore,
French equipment manufacturer Segepo has announced a EUR1.5mn (US$1.9mn) investment in Poland,
and is planning to construct a 3,500m² production plant in the town of Swiebodzice. As such, while BMI’s 2012 forecasts remain somewhat modest, there are strong indications that Poland’s autos market will continue to grow between 2012 and the end of our forecast period. We expect production to increase by 5.5% on average between 2012 and 2015, while vehicle sales should increase by around 6% a year between 2012 and 2016, boosted by the country’s strategic position in Central Europe and recovery in the eurozone.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Autos Industry SWOT 7
Poland Political SWOT Analysis 8
Poland Economic SWOT Analysis 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9
Global Overview 10
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 10
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 14
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings 14
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 18
Regional Overview 19
Investments In Emerging Europe 19
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 25
Table: Poland – Economic Activity 27
Industry Forecast Scenario 28
Table: Auto Production, 2009-2106 28
Table: Auto Sales, 2009-2016 29
Production And Sales 30
Trade 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Overview 35
Investment Climate 36
Used Vehicles 36
Manufacturers 37
Suppliers 38
Company Monitor 41
Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble 41
Company Profiles 43
Fiat 43
Škoda Auto 45
Renault 46
Toyota Motor 47
Opel 49
Intrall 50
Poland Demographic Outlook 51
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 52
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 53
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 54
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 54
BMI Methodology 55
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 55
Sources 56
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