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Poland Information Technology Report Q4 2012

Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 82

The Poland Information Technology Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, information technology associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's information technology industry.

BMI View:

Polish IT spending is expected to reach US$9.0bn in 2012, up 2%, with BMI downwardly revising its forecast given the expectation that domestic demand will be affected by spillover from the weak eurozone. Recent data suggests that the manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell from 50.1 in March to 49.2 in April, while recent retail sales data have also disappointed. However, Poland is expected to maintain its status as one of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)'s fastest-growing IT markets over the 2012-2016 forecast period, thanks largely to EU funding for ICT and information society-related initiatives. In 2012, areas of opportunity are expected to include financial services, with several contracts up for renewal, and healthcare, where two large projects are being implemented.

Headline Expenditure Projections:

Computer hardware sales:
US$3.4bn in 2011 to US$3.5bn in 2012, +2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors growth, but Poland remains on course to close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe

Software sales:
US$2.1bn in 2011 to US$2.1bn in 2012, +0% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors but ERP implementation is relatively high among Polish SMEs, compared with some other countries in the region.

IT Services sales:
US$3.3bn in 2011 to US$3.4bn in 2012, +3% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, with opportunities in key ITspending verticals such as financial services, telecoms, the public sector and utilities.

Risk/Reward Ratings:

Poland's score was 52.9 out of 100.0. Poland now ranks first in our latest RRR table, ahead of CEE peers Czech Republic, Hungary, and Turkey. The country also reported an above average Country Risk score of 74.

- In the current climate, IT vendors are likely to focus more on the enterprise sector, where average project sizes have been growing. Retrenchment is likely in non-EU-funded public sector IT spending, as a result of fiscal constraints. Prime Minister Donald Tusk's ruling Civic Platform
(PO) part is committed to exacting tough spending reforms in 2012, although new IT investments could also be justified as helping to realise public sector efficiency gains.

- With a larger installed IT base, acceptance of the need for IT services has spread through many Polish private sector organisations. Large companies still account for 60% of IT services spending overall, according to local research. Despite the recent attention they have received from vendors, SMEs currently account for less than 15% of IT spending

- BMI has downwardly revised its 2012 Poland growth forecast and continued regional economic headwinds will mean slower growth during BMI's five-year forecast period compared with the 2006-2008 pre-economic crisis trend level. Unemployment and falling wage growth present a threat to consumer sentiment, even though unemployment is falling.

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Poland IT Industry SWOT 7

Poland Telecoms Industry SWOT Analysis 8

Poland Political SWOT 9

Poland Economic SWOT 9

Poland Business Environment SWOT 10

Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 13

Europe IT Markets Overview 14

IT Penetration 14

Market Growth And Drivers 16

Sectors And Verticals 19

Poland Market Overview 23

Hardware 24

Software 26

Services 28

End-User Analysis 30

Industry Developments 31

Industry Forecast 34
Table: Poland IT Sector – Historical Data & Forecasts (US$mn Unless Otherwise Stated), 2009-2016 37

Industry Forecast Internet 38
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 38

Competitive Landscape 40

Hardware 40

Software 41

IT Services 42

Internet/Broadband Competitive Landscape 45
Table: Polish Fixed Broadband Market, March 2010 45

Macroeconomic Forecast 47
Table: Poland – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 49

Company Profiles 50

Hewlett-Packard 50

Asseco 56

Dell 58
Table: Selected Dell Mergers And Acquisitions 62

Microsoft Corporation 64

IBM 69

Country Snapshot 74

Poland Information Technology Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd

Page 4
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 75
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 76
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 77
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 77

BMI Methodology 78

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 78

IT Industry 78

IT Ratings – Methodology 79
Table: IT Business Environment Indicators 80

Weighting 81
Table: Weighting Of Components 81

Sources 81

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