Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2012

  • ID: 2254691
  • October 2012
  • Region: Indonesia
  • 76 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Indonesia Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Indonesia's mining industry.

We have downgraded our 2016 mining industry forecast from US$143bn down to US$125bn in light of a significantly weaker demand and price scenario for Indonesia's main commodity exports. We also foresee slow growth in base metal production from the country, which further contributes to our mining industry value downgrade. Despite our low production growth rate forecasts for other metals, the country will remain a dominant mineral exporter in the region and will retain its status as the largest thermal coal and tin exporter in the world.

Positive regulatory developments in recent years include the passage of the 2009 Mining Law, which streamlines and improves upon the 1967 Mining Law. However, key implementation guidelines with reference to benchmark pricing and asset divestment procedures have yet to be announced, which is a source of uncertainty for investors. Two new mining laws were signed into law during Q112 that give more READ MORE >

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BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Indonesia Mining Sector SWOT 7

Indonesia Business Environment SWOT 8

Global Mining Outlook 9
Table: Recent Tax Increases 12
Table: Largest Coal Projects 14
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects 15

Asia Mining Sector Outlook 16
Table: Key Asia Pacific Legislative Changes 16

Market Overview 21
Table: Indonesia – Mining Industry Value & Production 22

Industry Forecasts 23

Tin: Anaemic Growth Due To Supply Controls 23
Table: Indonesia – Tin Production 25

Nickel: Investment To Continue Despite Heavier Divestment Obligation 25
Table: Indonesia – Largest Nickel Projects 27
Table: Indonesia – Nickel Production 27

Copper: Industrial Action To Take Big Toll On Production In 2012 28
Table: Indonesia – Largest Copper Projects 30
Table: Indonesia – Copper Production 31

Coal: Domestic Demand To Drive Growth 31
Table: Indonesia – Largest Coal Projects 33
Table: Indonesia – Coal Production 34

Regulatory Development 35
Table: Divestment Rulings 36
Table: Export Thresholds In Law No 7 Of 2012 38

Asia Business Environment Ratings 39
Table: Asia Mining Risk-Reward Ratings 39

Competitive Landscape 44
Table: Indonesia – Comparative Metrics 45

Company Profiles 46

PT Antam 46
Table: PT Antam – Financial Results 50

Coal India Limited (CIL) 51
Table: Bumi Resources – Financial Results 54

PT Timah 55
Table: PT Timah – Financial Results 58

Commodity Strategy 59

Indonesia Mining Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd

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Monthly Metals Update 59

Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold 60

Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 62

Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 64

Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 66

Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 67

Steel: More Pain Ahead 68

Tin To Outperform 69

Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 71
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 72

Business Environment Ratings Methodology 73
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 74
Table: Weighting Of Components 75

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