Italy Defence and Security Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 76
The Italy Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Italy's defence and security industry.
BMI’s Italy Defence & Security Report for Q412 examines the country’s defence posture, defence procurement and defence industry. The report seeks to examine how the Italian government is attempting to balance its defence budget amid the country’s sluggish economic performance.
The report details the Italian armed forces structure, including its order of battle. In addition, it examines the government’s efforts to streamline the size of the armed forces, and better configure them to perform out-of-area operations. The report also discusses Italy’s long-term procurement plans, and the country’s recent procurement trends.
Italy’s defence sector faces a number of distinct challenges in the near future. The country is performing a protracted reorientation of its strategic posture to essentially reconfigure its armed forces from their erstwhile NATO posture – which sought to defend the southern part of the European continent against Soviet Union and Warsaw Pact aggression – into an adaptable and agile force able to rapidly project power beyond Italy’s borders. For this strategic aspiration to become a reality, the Italian government is pursuing a number of projects that seek to improve procurement platforms, enhancing the armed force’s power projection capabilities and providing force multiplier capability in theatre. As well as pursuing these objectives, the Italian government is trying to achieve them in period of profound economic stagnation, which is having an adverse effect on the country’s economy.
Over the last quarter, BMI has made a number of changes to its forecasts. These include:
- Adjustments to the defence budget allocated for procurement between 2012 and 2014.
- A detailed discussion of Italy’s defence decision making process and its grand strategy;
- An outline of the major procurement programmes across the Italian army, air force and navy in the coming years; and
- Details regarding the expected reductions in the size of the army, air force and navy in the next five to ten years.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Italy Security SWOT 6
Italy Political SWOT 7
Italy Economic SWOT 8
Italy Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Europe Security Overview 13
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 13
Europe In A Global Context 13
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 13
Security Risk Ratings 20
BMI’s Security Ratings 20
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 21
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 22
Political Outlook 23
Domestic Politics 23
Long-Term Political Outlook 25
Italy Security Overview 29
Internal Security Situation 29
Organised Crime 29
Latest Developments 31
Timeline: Internal Threats 31
Table: Insurgent Groups 32
External Security Situation 32
International Terrorism 32
Latest Developments 34
Timeline: External Threats 34
Armed Forces And Government Spending 37
Defence Decision Making 37
Grand Strategy 37
Order of Battle 37
Defence Modernisation 41
International Deployments and Joint Exercises 44
Table: Italy’s Foreign Deployments 45
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 45
Market Overview 48
Arms Trade Overview 48
Procurement Trends and Developments 51
Table: Italy’s Key Defence Players 52
Italy Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Industry Forecast Scenario 53
Armed Forces 53
Table: Italy’s Armed Forces Personnel, 2002-2009 (‘000, unless otherwise stated) 53
Table: Italy’s Manpower Available For Military Services 2011-2016(aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 53
Defence Expenditure 54
Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 54
Table: Italy’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 55
Table: Italy’s Defence Imports , 2009-2016 (US$mn) 56
Table: Italy’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 56
Table: Italy’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 57
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 57
Macroeconomic Forecast 58
Table: Italy – GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016 60
Company Profiles 61
AgustaWestland 61
Avio 63
Fincantieri 64
Finmeccanica 66
MBDA 68
Italy Demographic Outlook 70
Table: Italy’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 71
Table: Italy’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 72
Table: Italy’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 73
Table: Italy’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 73
Methodology 74
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 74
Defence Industry 74
Sources 75
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