Libya Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 84
The Libya Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Libya's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
We expect oil and gas production to bounce back strongly in 2012, despite the obvious political risks associated with Libya’s transition to a new democratic government. Over the longer term,
both oil and gas volumes are likely to increase beyond pre-war levels as new investment flows into underexplored areas – especially the offshore Sirte Basin.
The key trends and developments in Libya’s oil & gas sector are:
- We forecast total liquids production of 1.62mn barrels per day (b/d) in 2012, rising to 1.77mn b/d in 2016 and 1.85mn b/d by 2021. Gas output is forecast to increase from 5.96bn cubic metres
(bcm) in 2012 to 16.45bcm by 2016 and 19.26bcm by 2021.
- These forecasts are subject to upside risks depending on the level of upstream investment. The new democratic government has pledged to invest US$10bn raising oil and gas production capacity from existing fields and US$20bn on new exploration over the next 10 years, according to oil and gas minister, Abdurahman Benyezza. If that materialises, output could well increase beyond our long-term projections.
- International investment is also a big unknown. Foreign suitors are likely to be attracted by Libya’s vast oil and gas reserves, which stood at an estimated at 44.1bn barrels (bbl) and 1.56trn cubic metres (tcm) respectively in 2011. However, clear political risks, the introduction of new production sharing contracts (PSC), and a revised hydrocarbons law are all likely to affect the country’s business environment.
- Before the civil war, there was some 378,000b/d of refining capacity in Libya (according to BMI’s Downstream Projects Database). Throughput has been well below this level in H112 because the country’s 220,000b/d Ras Lanuf facility remained shut-in until late August 2012.
Our forecasts point to a gradual restoration of refinery utilisation, with a return to pre-war levels expected by end-2012.
- Oil and gas consumption is set to return to pre-war levels gradually because damage to infrastructure is likely to lead to lower domestic demand from power generation. However, over the longer term, reconstruction efforts are likely to drive economic growth and oil demand higher.
At the time of writing, we forecast an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, which we see falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013. Global real GDP growth for 2012 is forecast to be 2.6%, down from 3.1% in 2011, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and continuing concerns over the eurozone debt crisis.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Libya Oil and Gas SWOT 8
Global Energy Market Outlook 9
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 9
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 11
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 13
Regional Energy Market Outlook 17
Libya Energy Market Overview 21
Industry Forecast Scenario 23
Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecast, 2009-2016 23
Table: Libya Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 24
Oil And Gas Reserves 25
Oil Supply And Demand 27
Gas Supply And Demand 28
LNG 28
Refining And Oil Products Trade 29
Revenues/Import Costs 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 30
Oil Refineries 30
Table: Refineries In Libya 30
Oil Terminals/Ports 31
Oil Pipelines 31
LNG Terminals 32
Table: LNG Terminals In Libya 32
Gas Pipelines 32
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Libya Upstream Rewards 37
Libya Upstream Risks 37
Libya Downstream Scores 37
Competitive Landscape 38
Executive Summary 38
Table: Key Players – Libyan Oil And Gas Sector 39
Overview/State Role 40
Licensing and Regulation 40
Tax Law 41
Government Policy 42
Licensing Rounds 42
Fourth Licensing Round (First Gas Licensing Round) 42
Third Licensing Round 42
Second Licensing Round 42
First Licensing Round 43
International Energy Relations 43
Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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Table: Key Upstream Players 44
Table: Key Downstream Player 44
Company Monitor 45
National Oil Corporation (NOC) 45
Eni North Africa 47
Total Libya 49
OMV of Libya 51
Repsol Libya 53
Marathon Oil 55
ConocoPhillips 57
BP – Summary 59
ExxonMobil – Summary 59
Tatneft – Summary 59
Occidental Petroleum – Summary 60
BG Group – Summary 60
Hess – Summary 60
Woodside Petroleum – Summary 61
Chevron – Summary 61
Statoil – Summary 61
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 62
Suncor – Summary 62
PGNiG – Summary 63
Gazprom – Summary 63
RWE – Summary 63
Verenex Energy – Summary 64
Indian Oil/Oil India – Summary 64
Others – Summary 65
Africa – Regional Appendix 66
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2009-2016 66
Table: Oil Consumption, (000b/d) 2014-2021 67
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2009-2016 67
Table: Oil Production, (000b/d) 2014-2021 68
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2009-2016 69
Table: Refining Capacity, (000b/d) 2014-2021 69
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2009-2016 70
Table: Gas Consumption, (bcm) 2014-2021 70
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2009-2016 71
Table: Gas Production, (bcm) 2014-2021 72
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2009-2016 72
LNG Net Exports, (bcm) 2014-2021 73
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 74
Glossary Of Terms 75
Table: Glossary Of Terms 75
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 77
Ratings Overview 77
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 78
Indicators 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 80
Libya Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 5
BMI Methodology 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 82
Energy Industry 82
Cross checks 83
Sources 83
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