Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 77
The Estonia Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Estonia's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
BMI View:
We continue to view Estonia as a low-potential market, largely on account of its small – and gradually declining – population. Short-term development of its pharmaceutical market will be shaped by the factors including prevailing economic conditions, patent expirations and government encouragement of the consumption of cheaper generic medicine. We expect imports to remain of crucial importance to market supply, with Estonia lacking a major domestic drug producer and with local research and development (R&D) conducted on a small scale.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: EUR240mn (US$334mn) in 2011 to EUR253mn (US$322mn) in 2012;
+5.6% in local currency terms and -3.5% in US dollar terms. US forecast unchanged from Q312.
- Healthcare: EUR909mn (US$1.26bn) in 2011 to EUR945mn (US$1.20bn) in 2012; +3.9% in local currency terms and -5.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly down from Q312 on account of tightening fiscal conditions.
- Medical devices: EUR97mn (US$134mn) in 2011 to EUR101mn (US$128mn) in 2012; +4.2%
in local currency terms and -4.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast slightly down from Q312 due to worsening macroeconomic conditions and reassessment of historical data.
Risk/Reward Ratings:
In our Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Q412 – out of the 20 key markets in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) – Estonia remains in 12th place, to which it fell from ninth in the previous quarter. Its composite score continued to fall, and now stands at 51.2 out of the maximum 100, on a par with the regional average. With a score of just 30 for the quarter, Estonia's industry rewards remain considered the weakest part of its pharmaceutical profile.
Key Trends And Developments:
- The renovation of Haapsalu Neurological Rehabilitation Centre, a key rehabilitation centre in Estonia, started in May 2012, with a significant amount of support from the European Regional Development Fund. The EUR4mn (US$5.2mn) project, which is expected to be completed by 2014, includes the construction of an extra floor for the building to allow a research centre for neurological research studies.
BMI Economic View:
Estonia's economic growth will slow in real GDP terms, from 7.6% in 2011.
While the country's economic growth rate ill, nevertheless, remain the strongest figure in the eurozone,
the economy is not immune from the weakened external demand in the bloc, which we expect to contract this year. A high degree of uncertainty over the future of eurozone economic growth will feed through to lower private consumption and investment growth, both of which have been integral drivers of economic recovery in the Baltic country. Lower revenues will preclude major investment in healthcare facilities.
BMI Political View: We forecast Estonia's fiscal position to turn to a deficit of 2.4% of GDP in 2012 following a surplus of 1.0% in 2011, on the back of higher spending obligations influenced by a number of factors. Moreover, public debt will rise in the coming years in line with increased eurozone bailout obligations, but will still remain well below the eurozone average as a share of GDP.
CONTENTS 3
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Estonia Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Estonia Political SWOT 8
Estonia Economic SWOT 8
Estonia Business Environment SWOT 9
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: CEE Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 10
Rewards 11
Risks 11
Estonia – Market Summary 13
Regulatory Regime 15
Regional Harmonisation 16
Intellectual Property Regime 17
Parallel Importing 17
Pricing Regime 17
Reimbursement Regime 18
Table: Key Health Insurance Indicators, 2007-2011 20
Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Industry Developments 21
Epidemiology 21
Healthcare Sector 22
Healthcare Reform 23
Healthcare Provision 23
Healthcare Funding 24
Table: Healthcare Expenditure By The HIF, 2006-2011 (EURmn) 25
Healthcare Insurance 25
Table: Reimbursement Spending By Key Therapeutic Area, 2010-2011 (EURmn) 26
Table: Medicinal Products Reimbursed For Insured Patients, 2009-2011 (EURmn) 27
Healthcare Tourism 27
Biotechnology 27
Clinical Trials 29
Medical Devices 30
Industry Forecast Scenario 32
Overall Market Forecast 32
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales, 2008-2016 33
Healthcare Market Forecast 34
Table: Overall Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 35
Table: Government Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 35
Table: Private Healthcare Expenditure, 2008-2016 36
Estonia Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 37
Table: Macroeconomic Forecast 39
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 40
Table: Prescription Drug Sales, 2008-2016 42
Patented Drug Market Forecast 43
Table: Patented Drug Sales, 2008-2016 44
Generic Drug Market Forecast 45
Table: Generic Drug Sales, 2008-2016 46
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 47
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 48
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 49
Table: Pharmaceutical Trade, 2008-2016 51
Medical Device Market Forecast 52
Table: Medical Device Sales, 2008-2016 53
Other Healthcare Data Forecasts 54
Key Risks To BMI's Forecast Scenario 54
Competitive Landscape 55
Pharmaceutical Industry 55
Foreign Pharmaceutical Players 55
Company Developments 56
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 57
Pharmaceutical Retail 58
Table: Pharmacies And Pharmacy Market Ratios, 2004-2009 58
Company Profiles 60
GlaxoSmithKline 60
Pfizer 61
Novartis 62
Sanofi 63
Merck & Co 64
Grindeks (incorporating Tallinn Pharmaceutical Plant) 65
Demographic Data 67
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 68
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 68
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 69
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 69
Glossary 71
BMI Methodology 73
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 73
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 74
Ratings Overview 74
Table: Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Indicators 75
Weighting 76
Table: Weighting Of Components 76
Sources 76
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