Germany Defence and Security Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 69
The Germany Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's defence and security industry.
BMI’s Germany Defence & Security Report for Q412 examines the country’s defence posture, defence procurement initiatives and its defence spending.
Chiefly, the report examines the sometimes painful transition of Germany’s armed forces from their Cold War-era role of defending the country against Soviet and Warsaw Pact aggression, into a force capable of meeting the security challenges of the 21st Century.
The report also examines a number of aspects of Germany’s defence policy, including the continuingly vexing question facing the country concerning the transformation of its defence posture from its NATO European defence tasks into a force which can intervene in crises abroad. Berlin is keen to move Germany’s armed forces in this direction, but faces perennial domestic opposition from some portions of its population regarding the deployment of forces abroad.
In addition, the report examines several of Germany’s major defence procurement programmes. The German government is investing considerably across the land and air domains in particular. Capabilities in these two sectors are seen as essential to enable Germany to project power beyond its borders, though the notion remains deeply controversial. The legacy of the Second World War makes a significant element of the German polity highly distrustful of the procurement of any capabilities which enable Germany to intervene in conflicts beyond its borders. Nevertheless, since the end of the Cold War, Berlin has played an increasingly active role in military operations abroad, most notably in Afghanistan.
Over the past quarter, BMI has added the following discussions to the report:
- A detailed description of Germany’s defence decision-making process and the orders of battle of its armed forces;
- Planned reductions to the size of the German army and discussion of the major procurement programmes ongoing across the army, air force and navy;
- Details of current export prospects for German defence companies, recent procurement activity in the German air force and the latest figures for the German defence budget;
- A discussion of recent developments in Krauss Maffai Wegmann, one of Germany’s largest defence contractors.
Executive Summary
SWOT Analysis
Germany Security SWOT 6
Germany Defence SWOT 7
Germany Political SWOT 7
Germany Economic SWOT 8
Germany Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Political Outlook
Europe Security Overview 1
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 11
Europe In A Global Context 11
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 11
Security Risk Ratings 8
BMI’s Security Ratings 18
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 18
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 19
Political Outlook 1
Domestic Politics 21
Long-Term Political Outlook 23
Germany Security Overview 6
Internal Threats 26
Domestic Terrorism 26
Latest Developments 26
External Threats 27
International Terrorism 27
Latest Developments 28
Armed Forces And Government Spending 0
Grand Strategy 30
Order of Battle 32
Defence Modernisation 35
International Deployments and Joint Exercises 37
Table: Germany’s International Deployments 38
Weapons of Mass Destruction 40
Arms Trade Overview 43
Table: Key Players In Germany’s Defence Industry 45
Procurement Trends and Developments 45
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Armed Forces 47
Table: Germany’s Armed Forces (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated), 2000-2008 47
Table: Germany’s Manpower Available For Military Service (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated), 2008-2016 47
Defence Expenditure 48
Table: Germany Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 48
Table: Germany's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 49
Table: Germany’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 50
Germany Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Germany’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 50
Macroeconomic Outlook 1
Table: Germany - Macroeconomic Forecasts, 2012-2016 55
Company Profiles 6
EADS 56
Krauss-Maffei Wegmann 58
Rheinmetall Group 60
Germany Demographic Outlook 3
Table: Germany’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 64
Table: Germany’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: Germany’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: Germany’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66
BMI Methodology 7
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Defence Industry 67
Sources 68
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