Germany Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 86
The Germany Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Germany's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
For a country keen to wean itself off of fossil fuels, the decision to phase out nuclear energy represents a fresh and unwelcome challenge. Gas consumption seems certain to grow more quickly than expected as demand for power rises – until the energy void can be filled through the expansion of renewable sources. Refining capacity is being scaled back to do disappointing returns, so Germany must reduce its consumption of oil products in order to avoid becoming overly dependent on costly imports.
The main trends and developments we highlight in Germany’s oil and gas sector are:
- A group led by Macquarie Group in May 2012 agreed to pay EUR3.2bn to German utility E.ON for a network of natural-gas pipelines in Germany. The price for Open Grid Europe,
Germany’s biggest gas transmission system, includes adjustments for pensions and other assets,
E.ON said in a statement. The buyers include German reinsurer Munich Re, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority and British Columbia Investment Management, E.ON said.
- The Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources (BGR) has issued a report which has upgraded Germany's shale gas potential to an estimated 6.8-22.6bn cubic metres (bcm) of reserves. The findings may have little impact on the parliamentary committee currently studying Germany's shale gas potential. The body is expected to report its findings before the end of 2012.
The controversial hydraulic fracturing (fraccing) process has been in use in Germany at low levels since the 1990s, but increased public scrutiny has increased uncertainty over prospects for any large-scale effort to develop unconventional gas resources.
- US oil major ExxonMobil is to press ahead with the search for shale gas in Germany, and will also continue to launch conventional gas production initiatives, according to the company's head of Central European operations, Gernot Kalkoffen. This is despite doubts over the environmental impact of fraccing.
- The European Commission in August 2012 approved regulatory clearance for Gunvor Group’s acquisition of the assets of the Petroplus refinery in Ingolstadt and related German marketing activities. The 100,000b/d plant is one of the best-performing European refineries, according to Gunvor, with a strong regional footprint in Germany’s Bavaria region. Gunvor already trades the crude oils processed by the Ingolstadt refinery, it said, enabling greater efficiencies for the plant.
-Royal Dutch Shell is shortly to close its Harburg refinery following a fruitless search for a buyer. It will convert the main part of the facility into a fuels terminal. The base oil plant at the site will, however, be disassociated and sold to Nynas under a deal agreed in December 2011.
- Gas consumption now represents 23% of primary energy demand (PED), accounting for 11% of power generation. Its share of the power market is rising fast and gas demand should rise. Our forecast is for demand to rise from an estimated 97.9bcm in 2012 to 113.0bcm by 2016, then reaching 135bcm by 2021. Germany’s gas production is forecast to fall from around 12.0bcm in 2012 to no more than 9.0bcm over the period, unless shale gas drilling activity is stepped up and delivers early results. End-period gas imports are currently forecast at 126bcm.
- The recent decision to eliminate nuclear power generation raises questions with regard to medium-term hydrocarbons use, with both oil and gas likely to have a larger-than-expected share of overall energy demand and power generation. BMI is assuming that oil consumption of 2.40mn b/d in 2012 will rise to 2.49mn b/d in 2016 and to 2.60mn b/d by 2021, requiring net imports of 2.51mn b/d by the end of the forecast period.
Crude imports will cost the government some US$81.0bn in 2016, compared with an estimated US$88.6bn in 2012. The cost of gas imports by 2016 is estimated at US$47.3bn, taking the total for combined crude oil and natural gas import costs to US$128.3bn. At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013.The assumptions for 2016 and 2021 are US$93.25 and US$91.50/bbl respectively.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Germany Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 10
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 12
Regional Energy Market Outlook 16
Germany Energy Market Overview 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Germany Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 24
Table: Germany Oil & Gas – Long Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 25
Oil and Gas Reserves 26
Oil Supply And Demand 27
Gas Supply And Demand 28
LNG 28
Refining and Oil Products Trade 29
Revenues/Import Costs 29
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 29
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 30
Oil Refineries 30
Table: Refineries In Germany 31
Service Stations 34
Oil Pipelines 34
Oil Terminals 35
Oil Storage 35
Gas Pipelines 35
Gas Storage 38
LNG Terminals 39
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Table: Developed States Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings, Scores out of 100 40
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 44
Table: Downstream Risk/Rewards Ratings 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Overview 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Rewards 45
Germany Upstream Rating – Risks 45
Germany Downstream Rating – Overview 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Executive Summary 47
Table: Key Players – German Oil & Gas Sector 48
Overview/State Role 48
Germany Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Licensing/Regulation 49
Government Policy 50
International Energy Relations 51
Table: Key Upstream Players 51
Table: Key Downstream Players 52
Company Monitor 53
Royal Dutch Shell 53
BP 55
Total 57
ExxonMobil 59
PKN ORLEN 61
OMV 63
Gazprom – Summary 65
Rhein Petroleum – Summary 65
RWE – Summary 66
E N – Summary 67
Wintershall – Summary 67
Others – Summary 68
Developed Europe – Regional Appendix 70
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 70
Table: Oil Consumption, 2014-2021 (000 b/d) 71
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 71
Table: Oil Production, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 72
Table: Refinery Capacity, 2009-2016 (000b/d) 72
Table: Refining Capacity, 2014-2021 (000b/d) 73
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) 73
Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 74
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) 74
Table: Gas Production, 2014-2021 (bcm) 75
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports), 2009-2016 (bcm) 75
Table: LNG Gas Imports (Exports), 2009-2016 (bcm) 76
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 77
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 78
Ratings Overview 78
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 79
Indicators 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 79
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 80
Glossary Of Terms 82
Table: Glossary Of Terms 82
BMI Methodology 84
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 84
Energy Industry 84
Cross checks 85
Sources 85
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