Australia Metals Report Q4 2012

  • ID: 2254713
  • October 2012
  • Region: Australia
  • 69 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Australia Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's metals industry.

BMI View:

Across all types of metals, we expect subdued growth in both production and consumption in Australia as a weakening global economic outlook, notably China, continue to take its toll on Australia's commodity driven economy. Although significant additional global monetary stimulus should help to boost metal prices in the near term, the bout of loosening measures will not be enough to stem the slowdown and the medium-term outlook for metals remain weak. For some metals, we forecast a weak recovery in 2012.

The slowdown in the metals industry in Australia is best exemplified by the country's monthly crude steel production, which has continued to slide into negative territory following positive growth in 2010. Weak demand from slowing domestic construction and a cooling export market will continue to undermine Australia's steel industry in 2013. Crude steel production is expected to contract by 6.5% in 2013 and READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Australia Business Environment SWOT 7

Industry Forecasts 8

Steel: Construction Slowdown To Dominate 8
Table: Australia – Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 11
Table: Australia – Steel Production, Historical Data ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 12

Aluminium: Slow Growth To 2016 12
Table: Australia – Aluminium Production & Consumption 16

Lead: Little Potential For Strong Growth 16
Table: Australia – Refined Lead Production & Consumption 19

Nickel: Future Lies In Queensland Nickel's Hands 20
Table: Australia – Refined Nickel Production & Consumption 22

Zinc: Production Growth To Decline 22
Table: Australia – Refined Zinc Production & Consumption 25

Macroeconomic Outlook 26

Recession Remains In Sight 26
Table: Australia – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 28

Commodities Forecast 30

Steel Price Forecast – Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013 30
Table: Steel Forecast 30
Table: Steel Forecasts 36

Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update 37

Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold 38

Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 40

Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 42

Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 44

Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 45

Steel: More Pain Ahead 46

Tin To Outperform 47

Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 49
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 50

Competitive Landscape 51
Table: Australia – Comparative Metrics 52

Company Profiles 53

Rio Tinto 53
Table: Rio Tinto – Key Financial Data 56

Alcoa 57

Financial Data 60
Table: Alcoa – Financial Data 60

BlueScope Steel 61

Arrium Limited 64

Australia Metals Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd

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BMI Methodology 68

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 68

Cross Checks 68

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