Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 84
The Poland Agribusiness service provides proprietary medium term price forecasts for key commodities, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, cocoa, coffee, soy and milk; in addition to newly-researched competitive intelligence on leading agribusiness producers, traders and suppliers; in-depth analysis of latest industry developments; and essential industry context on Poland's agribusiness service.
We have revised down our forecast for Polish wheat and barley output in 2012/13 as droughts during plantings have affected production more than expected. We have also revised down our pork production forecast for 2013, as this livestock sector has been particularly hurt by high feed prices and low demand.
For dairy, the industry’s export potential supports our positive view on the sector, with recent acquisitions serving as examples. The government’s recent decision to drop the privatisation of the country’s largest sugar producer could delay the modernisation process of the industry and put downside risks to our sugar forecasts.
Key Forecasts:
- Wheat production growth to 2015/16: 4.6% to 9.8mn tonnes. The EU’s Rural Development Plan 2007-2013, for which Poland has a budget of EUR17.2bn, will encourage consolidation,
modernisation of agricultural holdings, and infrastructure improvements in the country’s grains farms, boosting yields of all three grains covered in our report.
- Sugar consumption growth to 2016: -0.4% to 1.7mn tonnes. The recent decision to not privatise Krajowa Spolka Cukrowa (KSC), the country’s largest sugar producer, will prevent significant improvement in competitiveness of the country’s producers, leaving consumer prices for the industry high.
- Poultry production growth to 2015/16: 19.7% to 1.7mn tonnes. Compulsory origin labelling could help to buoy domestic production and secure it against imports.
- 2013 real GDP growth: 2.7% (down from an expected 2.5% in 2012; predicted to average 3.5% over 2011-2016).
- Consumer price inflation: 3.2% year-on-year (y-o-y) on average for 2013 (slightly down from the 4.1% y-o-y forecast for 2012).
- BMI universe agribusiness market value: 2.8% y-o-y decline to US$17.6bn in 2012/13,
forecast to increase on average by 0.2% annually between 2010/11 and 2015/16.
Industry Developments:
Compared with the US and Brazil, the EU is a relatively small ethanol producer. The EU bioethanol market represented only about 28% of the total biofuels market in the road transport sector in 2011. The majority of the production capacity in the EU has been installed in France, Germany, the UK, Spain and Poland. However, until 2011, most of the EU ethanol plants were functioning below capacity, as they had just been built and needed a start-up phase to become fully operational. In addition, EU plants have generally not been competitive compared with their US and Brazilian counterparts. This has led to cheap imports and endangered local producers’ margins.
Milkiland, a large dairy producer operating in Ukraine and Russia, in September 2012 announced the acquisition of Mazowiecka Spoldzielnia Mleczarska ‘Ostrowia’, a cheese factory in Eastern Poland, for PLN49.3mn. The factory is an advanced facility producing a wide range of dairy products, including hard cheese, curd cheese, yoghurt and processed cheese. It was acquired by Milkiland EU, a newly established Polish subsidiary of Milkiland Group.
Poland dropped plans to sell KSC, its largest sugar producer, to the firm’s workers and farmers for PLN1.2bn (US$380mn) because of concerns that the future company would be more vulnerable to hostile takeovers. The decision took into consideration the risks related to the current mergers and acquisitions environment as well as potential economic and financial vulnerabilities of the company.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Agriculture SWOT 7
Poland Business Environment SWOT 8
Supply & Demand Analysis 9
Poland Grains Outlook 9
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2011-2016 10
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 10
Table: Poland Wheat Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Table: Poland Corn Production, 2008-2012 14
Table: Poland Barley Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 14
Poland Livestock Outlook 14
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 16
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 16
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 16
Table: Poland Poultry Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Poland Pork Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 18
Table: Poland Beef & Veal Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 19
Poland Dairy Outlook 19
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 20
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 21
Table: Poland Milk Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: Poland Butter Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Table: Poland Cheese Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 22
Poland Rice Outlook 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2011-2016 23
Table: Poland Rice Consumption, 2008-2012 24
Poland Sugar Outlook 24
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2011-2016 25
Table: Poland Sugar Production & Consumption, 2008-2012 26
Commodity Price Analysis 28
Monthly Softs Update 28
Cocoa: Momentum Waning 29
Coffee: Temporary Rally 30
Cotton: Forming A Base 31
Palm Oil: Underperforming The Complex 32
Sugar: Scope For A Moderate Rebound 34
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 35
Monthly Grains Update 37
Wheat: Little Relief From Southern Hemisphere 38
Corn: Looking The Weakest 39
Soybean: Prices To Stay Relatively Supported 41
Rice: Still The Underperformer 42
Table: Select Commodities: Performance & Forecasts 44
Poland Agribusiness Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Upstream Analysis 45
Europe Fertiliser Outlook 45
Europe GM Outlook 50
Europe Machinery Outlook 54
Downstream Analysis 58
Consumer Outlook 58
Food 58
Food Consumption 58
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2008-2016 59
Meat 60
Table: Bacon & Ham, 2009-2016 60
Table: Sausage, 2009-2016 61
Fish 61
Table: Fish, 2009-2016 61
Frozen Fruit & Vegetables 63
Table: Frozen Fruit & Vegetables, 2009-2016 63
Pasta 64
Table: Pasta, 2009-2016 64
Confectionery 65
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 66
Drink 67
Alcoholic Drinks 67
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 67
Soft Drinks 70
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 71
Hot Drinks 72
Table: Hot Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 72
Mass Grocery Retail 73
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Value Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 74
Trade 75
Table: Trade Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 75
Country Snapshot 77
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 78
Table: Poland’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 79
Table: Poland’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 80
Table: Poland’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 80
Our Forecast Modelling
81
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 81
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