South Africa Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 62
The South Africa Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on South Africa's freight transportation industry.
BMI maintains our cautiously optimistic stance with regards to South Africa's freight transport sector in 2012. Although container volumes at the country's largest box-handling facility, Durban, have struggled to maintain volumes, total tonnage volumes at the Port of Richards Bay have grown by around 10%.
Given that the facility is the largest South African port in terms of total tonnage volumes, this also bodes well for the country's rail freight sector, and would suggest that the feared slowdown in Chinese demand for the country's commodities has not yet impacted upon the sector.
Headline Industry Data:
- Rail freight growth will be 8.4% in 2012, and will average 3.7% to 2016.
- Richards Bay Port's tonnage throughput in 2012 is forecast to increase by 8.7%. Over the medium term we project a 3.0% average annual increase.
- 2012 total trade growth is forecast at 1.3%, down from the estimated 7.8% expansion in 2011.
Key Industry Trends:
Transnet Registers 21% Revenue Increase South Africa's state-owned transport company Transnet registered a 21% year-on-year (y-o-y) rise in revenue to ZAR45.9bn (US$5.6bn) during FY2011/12 ended March 31. Earnings before interest, taxes,
depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose to ZAR18.9bn (US$2.3bn) during the reported period,
compared with ZAR15.8bn (US$1.9bn) during FY2010/11. This was partly attributed to a 10.4% y-o-y rise in rail volumes to 201mn tonnes. However, net profits fell 1.5% y-o-y to ZAR4.1bn (US$0.5bn).
TFR Issues Tenders For Locomotives BMI notes that South African state-owned freight transport company Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) is investing heavily in developing its rail network. This consists of investments not only in the physical infrastructure, but also in the equipment used to transport goods. Investment has lagged behind demand in the country, and given how important South Africa's commodities exports are to the economy we note that Transnet's current commitment to improving performance is timely.
Largest SA Container Vessel Docks At Durban The Port of Durban has announced the arrival of the largest container vessel ever to dock at a South African facility. The MSC Sola, which has a capacity of 11,660 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs),
docked at the port on July 5 2012. The Port of Durban underwent a ZAR2.9bn (US$357,941) expansion programme in 2010. BMI believes that the vessel's arrival will demonstrate to other container shipping companies that Durban is capable of handling larger vessels, although it should be noted that the vessel was not fully laden when it called due to shallow waters.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Significant risks are posed to South Africa by the global headwinds facing the world economy - namely the ongoing European debt crisis and the potential of a hard landing in China. China in particular could be a real concern if growth continues to slow and the country begins to use its stockpiles of coal and iron ore,
which would impact on volumes of the commodities being transported on South African rail and through South African ports.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
South Africa Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7
South Africa Political SWOT 8
South Africa Economic SWOT 8
South Africa Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Trends And Developments 10
Road Haulage & Logistics 10
Rail 11
Maritime 12
Market Overview 14
Industry Forecast 18
Macroeconomic Outlook 18
Maritime Freight 18
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput, 2009-2017 ('000 tonnes) 19
Rail Freight 20
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2017 20
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2017 20
Trade 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2017 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2017 (US$mn) 22
Table: South Africa's Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 23
Table: South Africa's Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 23
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 24
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 25
Table: Refining Marker Margins (US$/bbl) 29
Political Outlook 35
Domestic Politics 35
Long-Term Political Outlook 37
Macroeconomic Outlook 40
Table: South Africa – Real GDP Growth 42
Table: South Africa – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 43
Company Profiles 44
Safmarine 44
Deutsche Afrika-Linien (DAL) 46
Transnet Freight Rail (TFR) 48
Grindrod 53
Demographic Outlook 56
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 57
Table: South Africa's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 58
Table: South Africa's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 59
Table: South Africa's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 59
BMI Methodology 60
South Africa Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60
Transport Industry 60
Sources 61
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