Taiwan Freight Transport Report Q4 2012

The Taiwan Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Taiwan's freight transportation industry.

For the second quarter in a row, we are cutting back our GDP growth prediction for Taiwan in 2012. We now expect growth of only 1.6%, compared to 2.2% beforehand. Lower exports, a lull in investment, and signs of internal divisions and policy drift within the Taipei government have all played a part. A significant change on last quarter is that foreign trade prospects are decidedly gloomier. In our last report we expected total trade (imports + exports) to grow by 0.9% in 2012. In contrast, we are now predicting a contraction of 3.25%. The recovery cycle will eventually kick in, but we are saying it has in effect been pushed back to 2013, when we are expecting GDP growth of 4.2% (was 5.1%).

Slower growth this year will have a significant impact on port and shipping activity. We had already factored that in, so out port activity forecasts have not changed significantly, apart from small adjustments to take account of H112 data releases. Broadly speaking Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port, remains the most resilient. At Keelung, the country's second largest port, the downside will be more severe, with percentage falls of around 10% in both bulk tonnage and box traffic.

On the plus side, the policy of cross-straits integration is expected to continue, most likely for another four years. Further liberalisation of relations between Taiwan and mainland China remains on the cards.

In this context Taiwan's ports and shipping lines continue to position themselves to work through a series of alliances and partnerships with mainland companies over the next few years.

Headline Industry Data:

- 2012 air freight tonnage is expected to contract by 3.5% to 1.104mn tonnes.

- 2012 rail freight is forecast to fall steeply by 2.0% to 14.210mn tonnes.

- Bucking the trend, 2012 road freight is forecast to grow by 1.7% to 648.846mn tonnes.

- 2012 Port of Kaohsiung tonnage throughput forecast to contract by 2.0% to 121.453mn tonnes,
over the mid-term we project an annual average increase of 0.9%.

- Port of Keelung will see tonnage contracting by 9.75% to 68.065mn tonnes in 2012.

- 2012 total trade is forecast to fall by 3.25% in real terms, compared to 1.9% growth in the preceding year.

Key Industry Trends:

Air Freight Operators See Improvement China Airlines and EVA Air reported revenue improvements in July, taken as a sign that the peak season, which runs from June to September, will be better than feared. According to China Airlines, the firm posted revenue of TWD12.42bn (US$414mn) in July, with TWD8.47bn (US$282.3mn) coming from passenger transport and TWD3.424bn (US$114.13mn) derived from freight transport, hitting an overall monthly revenue high since August 2010. Eva Airlines' revenue hit a peak of TWD10.047bn
(US$334.9mn) in July, with TWD6.586bn (US$219.53mn) from passenger transport and TWD2.822bn
(US$94.6mn) from freight transport.

Sabre Rattling In South China Sea Bodes Ill A diplomatic spat between Washington and Beijing has highlighted the tangle of competing territorial claims in the South China Sea. There have for long been conflicting territorial claims over large parts of the sea by China - which claims most of it - Vietnam, and the Philippines. Brunei, Taiwan, and Malaysia also have partial claims. A number of analysts believe that the risk of an armed clash is small, but that it is likely that entrenched positions will be maintained. 'While the likelihood of major conflict remains low,
all of the trends are in the wrong direction, and prospects of resolution are diminishing," the International Crisis Group recently warned.

Coordination & Investment for Key Ports Taiwan International Ports Corporation (TPI) will coordinate a collective approach among the country's key facilities. The southern ports of Kaohsiung and Taipei will operate as the corporation's central international facilities, while the port of Taichung will become a free trade zone. The port of Hualien will concentrate upon the fostering of green industry and tourism, while the port of Keelung will also promote cruises and tourism. In a linked development, in mid-August Taiwan's Council for Economic Planning and Development (CEPD) said it had approved a five-year, TWD66bn (US$2.2bn) expansion plan for TPI ports. Kaohsiung port will benefit from the development of the phase two of its international container terminal and a land development project. Keelung port will develop its passenger zone,
commercial district and roadways. The port of Taipei will carry out land reclamation and dredging operation while Taichung port will build three bulk/general cargo terminals, public warehouse facilities and one multi-purpose terminal.

Risks To Outlook:

We think that politics is beginning to become more of a downside risk factor for the freight transport sector. While Taiwan remains a stable, market-friendly country, the troubles of the Ma Ying-jeou KMT administration are mounting up. Only half a year into his second term as president, Ma is doing very badly in the opinion polls, amid internal disputes, allegations of corruption, and some significant policy setbacks. Importantly, government plans to introduce a new capital gains tax are in disarray, with disagreements leading to the resignation of the finance minister. The Taipei government is also embroiled in a damaging controversy over US beef imports. A period of policy drift could undermine business confidence and ultimately delay important investment and business decisions, delaying the hoped-for economic recovery.

Against this there remains a more medium-term upside risk in the form of Chinese interest in Taiwan's transport infrastructure and in expansion projects at its facilities. Given the comparative sizes of the two economies, a 'small' Chinese investment in some of Taiwan's transport businesses can be of major significance to the whole freight sector. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 8

Taiwan Freight Transport Industry SWOT 8

Taiwan Political SWOT 9

Taiwan Economic SWOT 10

Taiwan Business Environment SWOT 11

Industry Trends And Developments 12

Multimodal/Logistics 12

Air 13

Maritime 14

Market Overview 16

Industry Forecast 19

GDP Forecast For 2012 Reduced 19

Air Freight: Contraction Less Severe Than Expected 19
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2017 19

Maritime Freight: Kaohsiung Slows, But Keelung Drops 20
Table: Maritime Freight - Throughput ('000 tonnes), 2009-2016 20

Rail Freight: 2% Contraction Expected This Year 21
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2017 21

Road Freight: Moderate Expansion Continues 21
Table: Road Freight, 2009-2017 21

Trade 22
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2017 22
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 22

Global Oil Products Price Outlook 24
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 25
Table: Refining Marker Margins (US$/bbl) 29

Political Outlook 35

Domestic Politics 35

Long-Term Political Outlook 36

Macroeconomic Outlook 40
Table: Taiwan - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 42

Company Profiles 43

China Airlines Cargo (CAC) 43

Aeroflot Cargo 45

Yang Ming Marine Transport Corporation 47

Cheng Lie Navigation Company (CNC Line) 50

Wan Hai Lines 53

Evergreen Line 56

BMI Methodology 60

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 60

Transport Industry 60

Sources 61