Poland Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 52
The Poland Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, electronics associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's consumer electronics industry..
BMI expects the Poland consumer electronics market will grow by around 6% in 2012, which is a moderation as consumer confidence is affected by fiscal retrenchment and uncertainty. Consumer electronics was also a growth leader in 2011 as total Polish retail sales rebounded strongly but most indicators point towards continued weakening in 2012. We forecast household consumption to grow by a tepid 1.0% in 2012. Private consumption grew 3.1% in 2011, compared to an average of 3.8% over the previous five years. With the Polish central bank pushing banks to boost capital buffers, we see little scope for a significant expansion of consumer credit, Over the five-year forecast period however, BMI forecasts a steady increase in spending on digital lifestyle items such as smartphones and LED TV sets,
driven by rising disposable incomes, consumers seeking choice and low prices offered by foreign and domestic chains.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer hardware sales: US$3.4bn in 2011 to US$3.5bn in 2012, +2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors growth, but Poland remains on course to close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe AV sales: US$2.3bn in 2011 to US$2.4bn in 2012,
+5% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with the main driver being demand for flatscreen TV sets.
Handset sales: US$1.8bn in 2011 to US$2.0bn in 2012, +9% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with strong growth expected in smartphone sales.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Poland’s score was 54.7 out of 100.0 with a high Market Risk and Country Risk scores of 70 and 73.3 respectively. Poland took first place in our latest Emerging Europe CE RRR table,
and looks set to be one of the best regional CE market prospects over our five-year forecast period.
Key Trends & Developments
By 2016, BMI forecasts that non-LCD and plasma models will comprise only about 10% of sales,
although there currently remains demand for larger analogue models. TV revenue accounts for more than 50% of total AV demand, although lower average prices of flat screen TV sets will restrain revenue growth. Expanding availability of digital and HD TV broadcasting will drive demand for a higher quality viewing experience as consumers upgrade their sets to digital.
Growing competition and operator promotions will drive smartphones sales and in H111 smartphones already represented a majority of handset models offered by Poland’s telecoms operators. In the case of mobile service provider Play, smartphones accounted for 80% of handsets on offer, while the equivalent figure for Orange Poland was 70%. Bundling attractive hardware such as smartphones and netbooks is one method being pursued by the operators in their attempts to woo higher value customers.
BMI projects that PC penetration could reach about 75% by 2016. In the medium term, a quick look at Poland's forecast growth trajectory reveals how quickly Poland could close the PC ownership gap with Western Europe as incomes increase, driven by the effects of EU membership.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Poland Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Poland Political SWOT 8
Poland Economic SWOT 8
Poland Business Environment SWOT 9
CEE Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: CEE Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 13
Consumer Electronics Market 14
Computers 15
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 15
AV Devices 18
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 18
Mobile Handsets 21
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 21
Electronics Industry 25
Table: Electronics Output, 2009-2016 25
Table: Manufacture Of Computers, Electronic And Optical Products (index) July 2009-July 2010 (previous month = 100) 26
Table: Poland Electronics Sector: Employment (2009) 26
Table: Electronics Trade, 2009-2016 26
Table: Electronics Production By Segment, 2009-2016 28
Manufacture of Consumer Electronics (Quarterly, June 09 – June 11) (PLNmn) 28
Table: FDI By Asian LCD TV Set Manufacturers In Poland 30
Manufacture of Electronic Components and Boards (Quarterly, June 09 – June 11) (PLNmn) 30
Table: Manufacture Of Office Machines And Computers (units) April 2011-March 2012 31
Table: Sold Production Value: Office Machines And Computers (PLN) April 2011-March 2012 31
Manufacture of Communications Equipment (Quarterly, June 09 – June 11) (PLNmn) 32
Industry Forecast Scenario 33
Consumer Electronics Market 33
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 33
Industry Developments 36
Macroeconomic Forecast 37
Table: Poland - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 39
Competitive Landscape 40
Computer 40
Handsets 42
AV 44
Country Snapshot 46
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 47
Table: Poland's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 48
Table: Poland's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 49
Poland Consumer Electronics Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Poland's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 49
BMI Methodology 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 50
Electronics Industry 51
Sources 51
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