Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
- ID: 2258493
- October 2012
- Region: Saudi Arabia
- 65 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, freight transportation associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Saudi Arabia's freight transportation industry.
The outlook for the Saudi Arabian freight transport sector is sanguine indeed. The government stimulus package continues to make itself felt through increased consumer confidence which is driving up container volumes at the kingdom's ports. This in turn will boost road haulage volumes. Total tonnage volumes at Saudi ports are also undergoing strong growth, and will be supported over the medium term by the massive house-building programme that is getting underway. The country is well supported by a growing fleet of dry and liquid bulk tankers which continues to expand through company mergers and vessel acquisitions, and the national air carrier, Saudia, has been generating strong revenue and volume growth in 2012. Specific investments in expanding the kingdom's maritime facilities, and in projects such as the Saudi Landbridge and the North-South railway, coupled with strong economic growth on the back of large oil receipts, will further boost freight volumes.
Headline Industry Data:
- Total Saudi Arabian trade set to increase 5.9% in 2012 in real terms, with imports growing 7.5%
and exports by 4.3%. Real trade growth will average 3.2% to 2016.
- Air freight volumes set to grow 8.8% in 2012, to reach 660,865 tonnes. Growth to 2016 to average 10.3% per annum.
- 2012 Jeddah Islamic Port total tonnage throughput growth forecast 29.5%, and to average 12.9%
per annum to 2016.
- 2012 rail freight volumes forecast to grow by 7.1% in 2012 and to average 7.7% over our forecast period.
Key Industry Trends:
Extra Freighter On Saudia's Hong Kong Service Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia), the air freight arm of Saudi Airlines, announced in September that it is to add an extra weekly freighter service between Saudi Arabia and Hong Kong, taking the total to eight flights a week. BMI believes that this new flight is indicative of the strong growth being enjoyed by the Middle Eastern airline, the largest cargo carrier in the region. It could also help boost business at Hong Kong airport, currently showing a year-on-year (y-o-y) decline in terms of volume throughput.
Authorities To Invest SAR2.8bn In King Abdulaziz Port Saudi Arabia intends to invest more than SAR2.8bn (US$750mn) to expand the King Abdulaziz Port in Dammam, according to the port's general manager, Naeem Ibrahim al-Naeem. The port will expand its container terminal capacity by allocating SAR2bn (US$535.71mn), while it will allocate SAR800mn
(US$213.28mn) for other facilities. The port registered a 10% increase in container handling to 822,093 units in H112, compared with 748,498 units in H111.
Delegation To Expedite Studies On Proposed US$3bn Causeway A 50-member Saudi business delegation will aim to speed up the studies on a proposed US$3bn Saudi-
Egypt causeway, which will bolster bilateral trade and relax travel of Egyptian pilgrims. The delegation,
on a visit to Cairo, will meet Egyptian President Mohamed Morsi and will also discuss the US$27bn Saudi investment in Egypt, which is facing certain obstacles. The causeway will link the Egyptian resort of Sharm El-Sheikh to Ras Hamid near Tabuk in Northern Saudi Arabia via Tiran Strait.
Key Risks To Outlook:
A major risk to our outlook would come from a major downturn in the West. We are already projecting an economic contraction of 0.5% in the eurozone in 2012. If this intensified and the demand for oil was reduced, it would hit our macroeconomic forecasts for Saudi Arabia. However, we currently expect high oil prices to continue in 2012, not least from sanctions against Iran which preclude the EU and US from importing Iranian crude, increasing demand for Saudi volumes.
Iran is the source of another threat to our outlook: if the pariah state were to go through with its threats to try and close the Strait of Hormuz it would impact Gulf ports such as the Port of Dammam. Equally, were Israel to unilaterally strike against the Islamic Republic it could greatly increase regional instability which would affect volumes through Saudi ports.
Risks to the upside for our forecasts come from Saudi Arabia's significant infrastructure investment programme, the Landbridge in particular. This offers upside to our forecasts for the Jeddah and Dammam ports. Jeddah's application to be a metals hub for the London Metals Exchange also offers upside potential to the facility's tonnage throughput. More immediately, if the North-South railway begins freight operations in July, as is scheduled, then it will present considerable upside risk to our rail freight forecasts for Saudi Arabia. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Industry SWOT 7
Saudi Arabia Political SWOT 7
Saudi Arabia Economic SWOT 8
Saudi Arabia Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Trends And Developments 9
Market Overview 13
Industry Forecast 17
Macroeconomic Outlook 17
Air Freight 17
Table: Air Freight, 2009-2016 18
Rail Freight 18
Table: Rail Freight, 2009-2016 18
Maritime Freight 19
Table: Maritime Freight, 2009-2016 20
Table: Saudi Arabia's Main Import Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 20
Table: Saudi Arabia's Main Export Partners (US$mn), 2002-2009 21
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2016 21
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 22
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 23
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts 24
Table: Refining Marker Margins (US$/bbl) 28
Political Outlook 34
Political Risk Analysis 34
Long-Term Political Outlook 35
Macroeconomic Outlook 39
Table: Saudi Arabia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 42
Company Profiles 43
Vela International Marine (Vela) 43
United Arab Shipping Company (UASC) 51
Saudi Airlines Cargo (Saudia) 54
Demographic Outlook 59
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 60
Table: Saudi Arabia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 61
Table: Saudi Arabia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 62
Table: Saudi Arabia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 62
BMI Methodology 63
Saudi Arabia Freight Transport Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 63
Transport Industry 63