Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 57
The Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, infrastructure associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Kazakhstan's infrastructure industry.
BMI View:
Bucking the trend for low growth in the construction sector, Kazakhstan is racing ahead to post strong growth for 2012. Year-on-year growth is at 7.7% for 2012 rising as high as 9.8% by 2014 driven by demand for the country’s resources. The industry value is expected to increase from US$13.8bn in 2012 to US42.0bn by the end of our forecast period in 2021. Long-term political stability remains the main shadow hanging over these strong growth figures.
Key developments in include:
- Kazakhstan and Russia announced plans to begin the construction of a nuclear power station in the former country as soon as 2013. The president made the statement on June 7 2012, following a document signing ceremony between the two countries.
- South Korean engineering firm Samsung Engineering has secured an engineering,
procurement, construction (EPC) contract for the Balkhash Thermal Power Plant (BTPP) in Kazakhstan. The US$2.1bn contract has been awarded by Samruk-Energy and a consortium of Korea Electric Power Corporation and Samsung C & T Corporation. Samsung Engineering will also undertake the commissioning of the coal-fired plant on a lump-sum turnkey basis. The construction of the 1,320MW BTPP is scheduled to start in Q412, with completion due in 2018. The plant is to fulfil the country's increasing electricity requirements.
- Spanish power and automation company ABB Group has been awarded a US$12mn contract to supply gas-insulated switchgear systems to a utility provider in Kazakhstan, reports Power Technology. ABB will be responsible for the provision of 18 bays of 110kV and 16 bays of 220kV systems to Astana Regionalnaya Elektro Setevaya Companiya. The systems will form part of the Shygys and Dostyk substations, which are scheduled to become operational in June 2013.
We anticipate Kazakh authorities will have a difficult time addressing ongoing discontent regarding the trials for the December Zhanaozen violence. In spite of this, we believe that the country's vast natural resources potential and President Nursultan Nazarbayev's firm grip on security forces will see to it that investor appetite remains anchored. That said, a proliferation or intensification of labour disputes across sectors could put this view at risk and dent the country's political risk profile.
We forecast Kazakhstan's real GDP growth to slow to 5.8% in 2012 down from 7.5% in 2011, before picking back up to 6.3% in 2013. Relatively high oil prices will continue to boost domestic demand and public investment, somewhat counteracting the continued slowdown in global demand. However, we caution that risks to this outlook are firmly to the downside, with macroeconomic headwinds prevailing from the slowdown in China and the persistent eurozone sovereign debt crisis.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Kazakhstan Infrastructure Industry SWOT 6
Market Overview 7
Competitive Landscape 7
Building Materials 9
Global 9
Europe 12
Table: Cement – Price/Volume % Variances (9m10/9m11) 15
Cement Forecasts 16
Table: Cement Production and Consumption Data, 2009 - 2016 16
Table: Cement Production and Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Industry Data, 2008 - 2016 18
Table: Construction And Infrastructure Long-Term Forecasts, 2013 - 2021 19
Construction And Infrastructure Forecast Scenario 20
Transport Infrastructure 22
Outlook and Overview 22
Major Projects Table – Transport 23
Energy and Utilities Infrastructure 25
Outlook and Overview 25
Major Projects Table – Energy And Utilities 28
Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 30
Outlook and Overview 30
Major Projects Table – Residential/Non-Residential Construction and Social Infrastructure 31
Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Kazakhstan’s Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Rewards 32
Risks 32
Regional Overview 33
Central and Eastern Europe Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: BMI's Central and Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Company Profiles 37
KazMunaiGaz (KMG) 37
Global Overview 40
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index – YTD Top Performers (%) 43
Table: BMI Infrastructure Index – YTD Worst Performers (%) 43
Methodology 44
Kazakhstan Infrastructure Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Industry Forecasts 44
Construction Industry 45
Data Methodology 45
New Infrastructure Data Sub-sectors 45
Construction 47
Capital Investment 47
Construction Sector Employment 48
Infrastructure Risk/Reward Ratings 48
Table: Infrastructure Business Environment Indicators 49
Project Finance Ratings 50
Table: Design And Construction Phase 51
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Commercial Construction 52
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Energy And Utilities 53
Table: Commissioning And Operating Phase – Transport 54
Sources 56
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