Malaysia Tourism Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 69
The Malaysia Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Malaysia's tourism industry.
The Malaysia Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the country’s tourism industry, bolstered by fast-rising demand from emerging markets such as China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. However, we caution that demand from traditional source markets, notably Thailand,
Australia and Singapore, could well fall during H212, following a change in the methodology used to record tourist arrivals by Malaysia’s Immigration Department.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector, such as airlines, gaming companies and hotel chains, as they seek to maximise the tremendous growth opportunities being offered by the Malaysian market.
Tourist arrivals to Malaysia over the first half of 2012 stood at 11,632,478, an increase of 2.4% year-onyear
(y-o-y). This would imply some downside risks to BMI’s current forecasts of 25.9mn arrivals for the full year. However, we choose to await the release of Q312 data to see whether any downwards revisions to BMI’s current forecasts become necessary. Overall, ASEAN continues to be the most significant contributor of tourists to Malaysia, accounting for some 73.8% of total arrivals, according to Tourism Malaysia. Strong growth was seen in arrivals from the Philippines (up 45.3% y-o-y), China (34.2% y-oy),
Japan (up 32.5%) and Indonesia (up 20%).
China’s strong growth in arrivals over H112 was partly due to increased flights on both Beijing-KL and Hong Kong-KL routes. Arrivals from Japan have also benefited from greater flight frequencies from KLKansai and KL-Haneda, operated by AirAsiaX.
Beyond 2012, BMI believes the government’s target of attracting 36mn tourist arrivals by 2020 is achievable based on current trends, with our own forecasts projecting an increase of 28% in arrivals between the end of 2011 and the end of 2016. We also forecast a 36.2% increase in tourism revenue between 2011 and 2016, which should take annual tourism revenue to more than US$25bn by the end of the forecast period.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts and views:
- BMI has upgraded its forecasts for tourist arrivals from China over the coming four years, with Chinese demand for regional travel continuing to grow strongly. BMI now believes that annual arrivals from China can double between end-2012 and end-2016, taking overall Chinese arrivals to in excess of 3mn by the end of our forecast period.
- BMI believes that inbound tourism flows to Malaysia should be boosted by the September 2012 opening of Legoland Malaysia, the first Legoland theme park to be opened in Asia. The location of the park in Johor state should also boost tourist flows to the south of the Malaysian peninsula.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Malaysia Tourism SWOT 6
Malaysia Political SWOT 7
Malaysia Economic SWOT 8
Malaysia Business Environment SWOT 9
Industry Forecast Scenario 10
Arrivals 10
Table: Tourism Arrivals, 2009-2016 11
Accommodation 11
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2016 (‘000, unless stated) 11
Expenditure 12
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2016 12
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Inbound Tourism, 2009-2016 15
Outbound Tourism 17
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2016 17
Market Overview – Travel 18
Commercial Airlines 18
Global Oil Products Price 20
Table: BMI Oil Price Forecasts, 2011-2016 20
Market Overview – Hospitality 27
Accommodation 27
Health Tourism 29
H5N1 Update 31
Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Asia Pacific Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings 33
BMI Security Ratings 33
Table: Asia Pacific Security Ratings 34
Table: Asia Pacific State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 35
Malaysia’s Risk Ratings 35
South East Asia Security Overview 36
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 36
South East Asia In A Global Context 36
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 37
Main Islamist Militant Groups In South East Asia 39
Other Regional Threats 44
China-US Rivalry In South East Asia 46
Outlook For South East Asia 47
Global Assumptions 48
Table: Global Assumptions, 2010-2016 48
Table: Global And Regional Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 49
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 50
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2010-2013 50
Developed States 50
Malaysia Tourism Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 51
Emerging Markets 52
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth, 2010-2013 (% chg y-o-y) 53
Company Profiles 54
AirAsia 54
Genting Malaysia 56
Malaysia Airlines 58
Demographic Outlook 61
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 62
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 63
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 64
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 64
BMI Methodology 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Tourism Industry 65
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 66
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 67
Table: Weighting Of Components 68
Sources 68
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