Colombia Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 69
The Colombia Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's defence and security industry.
Colombia's government continues to wage its campaign against insurgent organisations and criminal gangs involved in narcotics production and trafficking. The employment of the country's armed forces against these threats has yielded some successes, although it appears that the government is still a long way from defeating Marxist-inspired guerrilla groups such as Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC). This organisation has used a combination of attacks on Colombia's law enforcement organisations and the civilian population, along with kidnappings, extortion and drug trafficking to raise revenue.
Throughout the fourth quarter of 2012, the Colombian armed forces have enjoyed some significant successes against FARC, hitting a training camp, although the group has continued to be able to perform attacks against the security forces. One potentially promising announcement from FARC concerns the group's decision to abandon kidnapping and to release law enforcement hostages that it may be holding.
This prompted a supportive, albeit very cautious, reaction from the government.
Whether FARC and the government will soon embark on peace talks remains to be seen. The guerrilla organisation has at times hinted that it would be prepared to return to the negotiating table during 2011,
and during the first quarter of 2012. However, the government has outlined a series of preconditions that it insists the FARC must accept before it will enter negotiations. Moreover, there are concerns that FARC's tactics may simply be a ruse to push the government into negotiations, and to suspend military operations while the group reconstitutes itself in the wake of increasingly successful attacks against the organisation by the Colombian law enforcement organisations.
FARC's attacks are also having a negative effect on Colombia's critical national infrastructure. Armed actions against oil installations risk having a detrimental effect on crude oil production. This could derail the government's goal of increasing production to over 1.5mn barrels a day by 2015. In addition, FARC has attacked power stations, disrupting life in some of Colombia's conurbations. Economic activity has been recently disrupted by one of Colombia's criminal gangs, which ordered a general strike in one of Colombia's northern cities in retaliation for the death of its leader during a gunfight with police.
Government efforts to destroy the FARC are yielding small successes, although it seems unlikely that the guerrilla group will be destroyed in the short term, if it is ever destroyed at all. This situation is much the same for the narcotic criminal gangs, which operate throughout much of the country, and which may also be connected to several of Colombia's guerrilla organisations. In some ways, cocaine production is even harder to combat than FARC as a high global demand for the drug continues unabated throughout much of the West and the wider world.
During the last quarter, BMI has made the following updates to the Colombia Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013:
- A description of the country's defence decision-making process, its grand strategy and the orders of battle of its armed forces.
- An outline of current and anticipated future procurement projects being pursued by its army, air force and navy.
- Details regarding defence procurements performed in Q412 and Q312.
- Updated information regarding Colombia's 2012 defence budget.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Colombia Security SWOT 7
Colombia Defence Industry SWOT 8
Colombia Political SWOT 8
Colombia Economic SWOT 9
Colombia Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Political Outlook 10
Latin America Security Overview 13
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 13
Security Risk Analysis 33
BMI's Regional Security Ratings 33
Table: Latin America Security Ratings 33
Table: Latin America State Vulnerability To Terrorism Ratings 33
Colombia's Security Risk Ratings 34
Political Overview 35
Domestic Politics 35
A Decade Of Security Improvements To Continue 35
Table: Political Overview 38
Long-Term Political Outlook 39
Many Structural Challenges Ahead 39
Colombia Security Overview 43
Internal Security Situation 43
External Security Situation 45
Armed Forces & Government Spending 47
Market Overview 52
Arms Trade Overview 52
Procurement Trends & Developments 53
Industry Forecast Scenario 54
Armed Forces 54
Table: Colombia's Armed Forces, 2000-2009 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 54
Table: Colombia's Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 54
Defence Expenditure 55
Table: Colombia's Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 55
Table: Colombia's Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 56
Defence Trade 56
Table: Colombia's Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 56
Table: Colombia's Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 57
Table: Colombia's Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 58
Macroeconomic Forecast 58
A Moderating But Strong Consumer 58
Table: Colombia – GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth % 2009-2016 60
Company Profile 61
Colombia Defence & Security Report Q1 2013
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Industria Militar (Indumil) 61
Demographic Outlook 63
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 64
Table: Colombia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 65
Table: Colombia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 66
Table: Colombia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 66
BMI Methodology 67
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 67
Defence Industry 67
Sources 68
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