Croatia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 51
The Croatia Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, electronics associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Croatia's consumer electronics industry..
BMI View:
BMI expects the Croatian CE market will report flat growth,, which is a downwards revision due largely to macroeconomic factors. In 2012 we forecast that the government's introduction of a fiscal austerity budget will weaken consumer demand for durables, and we also highlight the increase in VAT to 25% from 23%. In June 2012, the Croatian consumer confidence index reached an all-time low of 34.41. Despite these exogenous factors, we expect demand for consumer lifestyle products such as smartphones, computers and LED-backlit TV sets to provide growth areas. Consumer electronics retail sales drivers include growing affordability of digital products, retail channel expansion, digital TV conversion and 3G mobile network rollouts.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
Computer sales: US$527mn in 2011 to US$517mn in 2012, -2% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised due to macroeconomic factors, but tablets are expected to provide a growth area in 2012, with potential sales of 65,000 units.
AV sales: US$265mn in 2011 to US$262mn in 2012, -1% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised, with the UEFA Euro-2012 tournament and the London Olympics providing a boost to demand for flat-screen TV sets.
Handset sales: US$213mn in 2011 to US$228mn in 2012, +19% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms downwardly revised but with stronger growth in smartphone sales.
Risk/Reward Rating:
Croatia’s score was 38.6 out of 100.0. Croatia took 7th place in our latest CE RRR table, ranking behind established EU markets such as the Czech Republic and Hungary but ahead of Serbia.
Key Trends & Developments:
- A number of factors should support momentum in the Croatian computer market, including a government plan to provide 800,000 tablet computers to Grade 1 schoolchildren. Consumer demand will still continue to be the main IT market growth driver, owing to economic growth and rising income levels. Amid fierce competition, aggressive promotions and new products are likely to be unveiled by retailers, resulting in pressure on margins.
- Digital TV availability and programming should continue to expand in Croatia and should remain a driver of TV set upgrades. While around 98% of Croatia’s 1.7mn households have TV sets, there is a trend for multiple sets. Sales of LCD and plasma sets have increased as prices have fallen over the last few years. In 2011, sales of LED and LED-backlit TV sets trended upwards owing to growing affordability after their appeal was initially limited mainly to highend consumers. 3D sets and ‘smart’ TV sets are growth areas.
- The Croatian smartphone penetration rate is considerably below the level found in Western European markets, leaving plenty of room for growth. However, in early 2012, the rate was estimated to have increased to around 15.5%, slightly ahead of the 13.3% estimated in Serbia.
Smartphones already constitute one-third of the handsets offered by Hrvatski Telecom and the operator has reported continued quarter-on-quarter (q-o-q) growth in sales of the devices.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Croatia Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Croatia Political SWOT 8
Croatia Economic SWOT 8
Croatia Business Environment SWOT 9
CEE Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings 10
Table: CEE Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 13
Consumer Electronics Market 14
Computers 16
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 16
AV 19
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 19
Mobile Handsets 22
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 22
Consumer Electronics Industry 26
Table: Croatia Electrical &Optical Equipment Industry – Key Metrics 26
Table: Electrical & Optical Equipment Trade (US$mn), 2006-2007 27
Computers 28
Table: Office Machinery & Computers (US$mn), 2006-2007 28
AV 29
Table: Radio, TV & Communications Equipment (US$mn), 2006-2007 29
Table: Croatian Distributors For Leading Brands 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Consumer Electronics Market 30
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview, 2009-2016 30
Industry Developments 33
Macroeconomic Forecast 34
Table: Croatia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 36
Competitive Landscape 37
Computers 37
Handsets 39
AV 41
Domestic Company Monitor 42
HG Spot 42
M San Grupa 44
Country Snapshot 45
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 46
Table: Croatia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 47
Table: Croatia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 48
Croatia Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Croatia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 48
BMI Methodology 49
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 49
Electronics Industry 50
Sources 50
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