Central America Food and Drink Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 102
The Central Merica Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Central Merica's food and drink industry.
We remain broadly optimistic in our outlook for the Central American consumer (covering the markets of Guatemala, Honduras, Costa Rica and El Salvador), despite the downside risks posed by the global economic uncertaintly and the increased security risks in parts of the region. Further development of organised retail will allow for a degree of premiumisation to take place, with discounters expected to outperform.
Headline Industry Data (regional averages):
- 2012 per capita food consumption (US$) = +5.0%; forecast to 2016 = +26.9%
- 2012 alcoholic drink sales (litres) = +6.3%; forecast to 2016 = +35.4%
- 2012 soft drink sales (litres) = +5.6% ; forecast to 2016 = +31.4%
- 2012 MGR sales (US$) = +5.9%; forecast to 2016 = +33.6%
Key Company Trends:
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador: In July 2012, US beverage company The Coca-Cola Company successfully trialled biodegradable bottle-shaped plastic bags for its flagship brand Coke in El Salvador and subsequently in neighbouring countries, according to Beverage Daily. Street vendors had been selling the drink in plastic bags as consumers didn’t want to pay extra for the returnable glass bottle.
Coca-Cola designed the new bags in the contour bottle shape to recover its brand image and save consumers money.
Costa Rica Starts Exports of Milk to Venezuela: In a move signalling the return to strength of the Costa Rican dairy industry, exports of milk to Venezuela were shipped in June 2012. The Dos Pinos Cooperative of Milk Producers is expecting to export 240 containers of UHT milk, worth some US$5mn, with further expansion of volumes likely to occur given rising demand in Venezuela.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Multifold Risks: In addition to violence and the overreliance on the US for remittances and demand for exports, Central American countries also remain at risk due to the factors such as the pervasive nature of corruption, a function of the region’s weak institutional capacity, combined with massive income inequality and a broader culture of clientelism. Poor and uneven economic development will keep demand for redistributive policies strong, and this will continue to clash with what in many cases is much-needed fiscal retrenchment. A final factor that will continue to blight Central America –
exacerbating the aforementioned challenges – is natural disasters, including flooding, drought,
earthquakes and in some cases volcanoes. Add to this a weak fiscal and institutional framework to deal with any fallout, and we expect natural disasters to continue derailing broader developmental goals.
BMI Industry View 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Central America Food Industry SWOT 8
Central America Drink Industry SWOT 9
Central America Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: Core Views 19
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Table: Latin America Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings Q412 (out of 10) 20
Table: Latin America Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings Q412 24
Central America Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Regional Macroeconomic Outlook 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 29
Consumer Outlook 29
Food 31
Food Consumption 31
Table: Guatemala – Food Consumption, 2009-2016 32
Table: Costa Rica – Food Consumption, 2009-2016 32
Table: El Salvador – Food Consumption, 2009-2016 33
Table: Honduras – Food Consumption, 2009-2016 33
Confectionery 34
Table: El Salvador – Confectionery, 2009-2016 34
Meat 36
Table: El Salvador – Meat, 2009-2016 36
Jams & Jellies 37
Table: El Salvador – Jams & Jellies, 2009-2016 37
Pasta 38
Table: El Salvador – Pasta, 2009-2016 38
Prepared Fish 39
Table: El Salvador – Fish, 2009-2016 39
Table: Costa Rica – Fish, 2009-2016 40
Oils & Fats 42
Table: Costa Rica – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016 42
Table: Guatemala – Soya Bean Oil, 2009-2016 42
Table: El Salvador – Margarine, 2009-2016 43
Dairy 44
Table: El Salvador – Dairy, 2009-2016 45
Drink 47
Hot Drinks 47
Table: Guatemala – Coffee, 2009-2016 48
Table: Costa Rica – Coffee, 2009-2016 48
Table: El Salvador – Coffee, 2009-2016 48
Table: Honduras – Coffee, 2009-2016 49
Alcoholic Drinks 49
Central America Food & Drink Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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Table: Guatemala – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 49
Table: Costa Rica – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 50
Table: El Salvador – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 50
Table: Honduras – Alcoholic Drinks, 2009-2016 51
Soft Drinks 51
Table: Guatemala – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016 52
Table: Costa Rica – Soft Drink Sales, 2009-2016 52
Table: El Salvador – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016 52
Table: Honduras – Soft Drinks, 2009-2016 53
Mass Grocery Retail 53
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format, % 54
Table: Guatemala – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016 54
Table: Costa Rica – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016 55
Table: El Salvador – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016 55
Table: Honduras – Mass Grocery Retail Sales, 2009-2016 56
Trade 56
Table: Guatemala – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 57
Table: Costa Rica – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 57
Table: El Salvador – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 57
Table: Honduras – Trade Indicators, 2009-2016 57
Food 58
Key Industry Trends And Developments 58
Florida Ice And Farm Enters Dairy Sector 58
Rising Interest In Ready-to-Eat Food 58
Pollo Tropical Launches First Franchised Restaurant In Costa Rica 58
Costa Rican Growers Must Adhere To New US Food Safety Law 59
Walmart Giving Producers A Hand 59
Market Overview 60
Drink 61
Key Industry Trends And Developments 61
Coca-Cola Trials Biogradable Bags in El Salvador 61
Costa Rican Farmers Setting Up Coffee Micro-Processing Plants 61
Starbucks Opens First Costa Rican Outlet 61
Honduras Struggles To Process Coffee Harvest 61
Regional Consolidation In Soft Drinks 62
Market Overview 62
Hot Drinks 62
Soft Drinks 63
Alcoholic Drinks 64
Mass Grocery Retail 66
Key Industry Trends And Developments 66
Walmart Launches New Discount Format In El Salvador 66
Walmart Investing In Expansion 66
Colombian Retailer Olimpica Moves Into Central America 67
Market Overview 67
Competitve Landscape 69
Table: Key Players In Central America’s Food & Drink Sector 69
Table: Key Players In Guatemala’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 70
Central America Food & Drink Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
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Table: Key Players In El Salvador’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 70
Table: Key Players In Costa Rica’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 71
Table: Key Players In Honduras’s Mass Grocery Retail Sector 72
Company Profiles 73
Food 73
Diana Food 73
Drink 74
Central America Beverage Corporation (CABCORP) 74
SABMiller 76
Mass Grocery Retail 78
Walmart Centroamerica 78
Country Snapshot 80
Guatemala 80
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 81
Table: Guatemala’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 82
Table: Guatemala’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 83
Table: Guatemala’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 83
Costa Rica 84
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 85
Table: Costa Rica’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 86
Table: Costa Rica’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 87
Table: Costa Rica’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 87
El Salvador 88
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 89
Table: El Salvador’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 90
Table: El Salvador’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 91
Table: El Salvador’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 91
Honduras 92
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 93
Table: Honduras’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 94
Table: Honduras’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 95
Table: Honduras’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 95
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 96
Table: Rewards 96
Table: Risks 97
Weighting 97
Table: Weighting 97
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 98
Food & Drink 98
Mass Grocery Retail 98
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 100
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 00
Sourcing 01
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