Chile Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 72
The Chile Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Chile's oil and gas industry.
BMI View:
Chile's small resource base makes the country heavily dependent upon imports to satisfy demand and promote economic growth. The country was required to import 97% of total oil consumption and 66% of its natural gas consumption in 2011. These dynamics will persist for the foreseeable future,
despite some long-term upside risks stemming from the country's shale gas potential. As such, strategic investments into LNG import capacity have been critical for Chile's energy security.
The key trends and developments in the Chilean oil & gas sector are:
- In terms of domestic production, we forecast both oil and gas to rise moderately in the coming years, with oil production increasing at an average of 1.8% through 2021 and natural gas increasing at an average rate of 1.1% through 2015 and then declining thereafter. At the same time, Chilean consumption of oil and natural gas will steadily increase, adding additional pressure on the government and state-owned Empresa Nacional del Petróleo (ENAP) to increase imports from abroad. Due to the country’s small resource base, Chile was required to import 97% of total oil consumption and 66% of its natural gas consumption in 2011.
- Two LNG import terminals service different regions of the country. The Quintero regasification terminal provides natural gas to the majority of the country's population, while the Mejillones terminal is well positioned to service the lucrative Chilean copper mines in the north. Due to the energy intensity of the copper industry, there is significant interest in expanding the capacity at Mejillones from its current capacity of 5.5 thousand cubic metres per day (mcm/d).
- In terms of consumption, we forecast that oil use will rise from an estimated 322,740 barrels per day (b/d) in 2011 to 345,650b/d by 2016. It will continue to increase steadily at an average rate of 1.8% to 2021. If Chile is to boost oil production, its best hope lies in exploration taking place in the Magallanes region in the south of the country. We are also forecasting an average gas consumption rate of 7.9 billion cubic metres (bcm) per year throughout the 10-year forecast period.
- The advent of technology capable of extracting oil and gas from shale formations has given Chile reason for optimism over the long term. Although still very preliminary, the EIA estimates that Chile's oil- and gas-producing Magallanes region may also contain 1,812.5bcm of technically recoverable shale gas resources. Should even half of these estimated resources become economically recoverable, the amount of gas produced would be sufficient to meet a 7.9bcm/year consumption rate for approximately 115 years. Although we have not taken shale gas production into account in our forecasts, it remains a significant upside risk in the long term.
The Chilean copper mining industry has already expressed interest in utilising shale gas to power production.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Chile Oil & Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 9
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
Chile Energy Market Overview 18
Industry Forecast Scenario 19
Table: Chile Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 19
Table: Chile Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 20
Oil and Gas Reserves 21
Oil Supply And Demand 22
Gas Supply And Demand 23
Liquefied Natural Gas 23
Refining And Oil Products Trade 24
Revenues/Import Costs 24
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 25
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 26
Oil Refineries 26
Table: Refineries In Chile 26
Service Stations 27
Gas Pipelines 27
LNG Terminals 27
Table: LNG Terminals In Chile 28
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 31
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Chile Upstream Rating – Rewards 34
Chile Upstream Rating – Risks 34
Chile Downstream Rating – Overview 34
Competitive Landscape 35
Executive Summary 35
Table: Chile – Key Players 36
Overview/State Role 36
Licensing And Regulation 37
Government Policy 37
Licensing Rounds 37
Second International Magallanes Tender 37
First International Magallanes Tender 37
International Energy Relations 38
Argentina 38
Chile Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Trinidad & Tobago 38
Table: Chile – Key Upstream Players 38
Table: Key Downstream Players 39
Company Monitor 40
ENAP – Empresa Nacional del Petróleo 40
Copec (Compañía de Petróleos de Chile) 43
Shell Chile 45
Petrobras Chile 47
Repsol 49
GeoPark Holdings 51
Wintershall – Summary 53
ExxonMobil Cono Sur – Summary 53
Pan American Energy – Summary 54
GDF Suez – Summary 54
Methanex – Summary 54
Enagas/BG Group 54
Latin America – Regional Appendix 55
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 55
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 56
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 57
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 58
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 58
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 59
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 60
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 61
Table: LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 61
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 62
Glossary Of Terms 63
Table: Glossary Of Terms 63
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 65
Ratings Overview 65
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 66
Indicators 67
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 67
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 68
BMI Methodology 70
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 70
Energy Industry 70
Cross checks 71
Sources 71
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