Canada Power Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 56
The Canada Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Canada's power industry.
BMI View:
With external headwinds and a slowdown in domestic consumption weighting on Canada’s economic performance, we have kept our 2012 consumption growth forecast for the Canadian power market steady, at a modest 0.91%. Owing to a combination of economic, demographic and industryspecific dynamic, we also anticipate that the country’s mature electricity market will see a positive but moderate rise in generation and consumption in the medium to long term.
Canada enjoys the advantage of a diverse and balanced electricity mix, thanks to its abundant indigenous resources. Yet, and despite Canada’s decision to withdraw from the Kyoto Protocol, environmental concerns are likely to weigh heavily upon the country’s energy agenda. Hence, in a picture similar to the one of its Southern neighbours, we anticipate that planned shifts in the share of various fuels will be among the key drivers of new investment in the power sector:
- Although Canada's heavy reliance on coal for electricity generation and its recent withdrawal from of the Kyoto agreement would suggest the expansion of greener technologies is not at the forefront of government policy, stringent government carbon emission regulations suggest that electricity generation from coal will decrease over our 10-year forecast period, especially after the abandonment of a flagship Carbon Capture and Storage (CSS) project at a coal-fired plant near Edmonton, Alberta, in April 2012.
- As a result, the country is likely that investment in low-carbon emission capacity, primarily gas and hydro and non-hydro renewable technologies. In terms of electricity mix, Canada is the third largest producer of hydroelectricity in the world, behind China and Brazil, and is likely to remain dominant.
- The absence of national targets for renewable energy and a very diverse energy mix across provinces make it difficult to gauge Canada's green energy agenda. However, according to our renewables analysts, the country's considerable natural potential for renewable electricity generation and the positive developments witnessed in some provinces provide some optimism for the industry.
- The country had expressed a desire to strengthen its nuclear capacity. However, despite developments within Canada’s nuclear industry, we anticipate a decrease in both nuclear generation and capacity as the industry in hindered by delays and decommissioning schedules.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Canada Power SWOT 6
Regional Industry Overview 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Canada Snapshot (Macro) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Canada Forecast Scenario 11
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 11
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 11
Table: Canada Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 14
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2015 16
Table: Canada Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 17
Table: Canada’s Nuclear Power Reactors 22
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010 -2016 24
Table: Canada Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 25
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 25
Table: Canada Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 26
Table: Canada Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 26
Table: Canada Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 26
Key Policies/Market Structure 29
Regulation and Competition 29
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Structural Models 30
Table: Canadian Power Industry – Regulation 30
Sustainable Energy Policies 31
Pricing 32
Key Projects Database 34
Table: Canada Major Projects - Power 34
Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Developed States Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Developed States Power Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 42
Canada’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 42
Rewards 43
Risks 43
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 44
BC Hydro 44
EPCOR 44
Hydro One 44
Maritime Electric 45
Ontario Power 45
Newfoundland Power 45
Nova Scotia Power 46
Canada Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
SaskPower 46
Enmax 46
Energie NB Power 46
ATCO 47
Glossary of Terms 48
Table: Glossary of Terms 48
Methodology And Sources 49
Industry Forecasts 49
Power Industry - Data Methodology 50
Generation and Consumption Data 50
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 51
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 51
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 53
Sources 55
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