Zambia Mining Report Q4 2012

  • ID: 2258540
  • October 2012
  • Region: Zambia
  • 65 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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The Zambia Mining Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, mining associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Zambia's mining industry.

Zambia's mining sector is set to continue the recovery seen over the last decade. The country had declining copper output throughout the 1990s, but a mixture of low taxes, privatisation and elevated copper prices has seen a substantial boost to investment and output. We expect the value of the mining sector to reach US$938mn by 2016, from US$770mn in 2011, marking an annual average growth rate of 4%.

Copper Output To Surpass 1mtpa In 2014

Copper mining will remain the mainstay of Zambia's mining sector, with output reaching 1.01mnt (mn tonnes) in 2016, from 784kt ('000 tonnes) in 2011. Much of this growth will be driven by First Quantum, which expects to start to produce 190ktpa ('000 tonnes per annum) by 2014 at the Sentinel deposit and is increasing output at the Kansanshi mine from 250ktpa to 400ktpa in 2015. The company appears to be focusing on Zambia as the centre of its African growth opportunities, after the legal READ MORE >

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Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Zambia Mining Sector SWOT 7

Zambia Business Environment SWOT 8

Global Mining Outlook 9
Table: Recent Tax Increases 12
Table: Largest Coal Projects 14
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects 15

Africa Mining Sector Outlook 16
Table: Recent Government Intervention 17

Market Overview 21

Zambia: Copper Boom To Drive Mining Sector 21
Table: Zambia – Main Mine Expansion Plans 22
Table: Zambia – Mining Industry Value & Production 23

Industry Forecasts 24

Copper: Zambia To Become Major Copper Producer 24
Table: Zambia – Largest Copper Expansion Plans 25
Table: Zambia – Copper Production 26

Coal: Booming Output To Support Copper Sector 26
Table: Zambia – Coal Projects 28
Table: Zambia – Coal Production 29

Cobalt: Rapid Growth In 2015 29
Table: Zambia – Main Cobalt Projects 30
Table: Zambia – Cobalt Production 30

Regulatory Structure 31

Africa Business Environment Ratings 32
Table: African Government Intervention 32
Table: Africa – Risk/Rewards Ratings 33

Competitive Landscape 38
Table: Comparative Valuation Metrics 39

Company Profiles 40

Vedanta Resources 40
Table: Vedanta – Financial Data 43

First Quantum 44
Table: First Quantum – Financial Data 46

Metals Commodity Price Forecasts 47

Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update 47

Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold 49

Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 51

Zambia Mining Report Q4 2012

© Business Monitor International Ltd

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Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 53

Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 55

Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 56

Steel: More Pain Ahead 57

Tin To Outperform 58

Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 60
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 61

Business Environment Ratings Methodology 62
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 63
Table: Weighting Of Components 64

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