Brazil Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
- ID: 2258544
- October 2012
- Region: Brazil
- 60 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Brazil Consumer Electronics Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, electronics associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Brazil's consumer electronics industry..
BMI projects Brazil consumer electronics spending will grow by about 14% in US dollar terms in 2012 to US$35.7bn. In Q112, sales of some consumer electronics devices slowed due to seasonal factors and economic uncertainty, but we expect faster growth in H212. The extension of the government’s Lei Do Bem programme to encourage local production of various products should boost the availability of affordable smartphones. In addition, tax cuts that started in Q311, particularly those aimed at durable goods such as PCs and TV sets, should support consumption over the coming quarters. Consumer electronics retailers reported strong growth in 2011 as shipments of notebooks and flat-screen TV sets surged and smartphone sales reported triple-digit growth. We expect tax cuts, aimed at durable goods such as PCs and TV sets, to further support consumption over the coming quarters. However, we eventually expect the Brazilian consumer to feel the effects of high levels of household debt and there are signs that banks are increasingly wary about increasing lending.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Computer hardware sales: US$11.8bn in 2011 to US$12.5bn in 2012; +5% in US dollar terms. Our forecast has been revised down due to analyst modification, following low singledigit growth in Q112, as businesses delayed investments due to economic uncertainty.
- AV sales: US$9.6bn in 2011 to US$10.2bn in 2012, +6% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar term changed moderately, with flat-screen TV sets expected to provide the most dynamic development.
- Mobile handset sales: US$10.1bn in 2011 to US$12.5bn in 2012, +24% in US dollar terms.
Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with falling prices driving the smartphone market.
Brazil’s score is 62.6 out of 100.0, which makes it second place in our latest Americas Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) table. The country’s huge potential market means its relatively high industry rewards score should be maintained over coming quarters. BMI expects Brazil to be one of the region’s most dynamic markets over our forecast period, with digital upgrades ahead of the 2014 football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games providing further momentum.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In 2012, despite a slowdown in Q112, PC sales are expected to continue to grow due to economic growth and low unemployment fuelling consumer confidence. PC shipments are projected to continue to increase, with the government and retail sectors at the forefront. PC market penetration is approaching about half of all households. Greater affordability combined with more credit options, lower interest rates and tax concessions will drive retail PC sales.
- Rio de Janeiro hosting the Olympics in 2016 is expected to provide a huge boost to demand for digital TV sets and cameras, in what is already the world’s fourth-largest digital cameras market.
Vendors are positioning themselves to take advantage. However, the government has had to modify the 2016 deadline for analogue signal switch-off in several parts of the country due to concerns that digital converters are too expensive for many consumers. The government has mandated that all HD TV set models must come installed with converters by 2012 and said it would work with industry stakeholders to improve access to the devices.
- Smartphones accounted for around 18% of mobile handset sales in 2011 and sales will continue to grow rapidly as the range and prices of smartphones become more accessible to consumers.
Use of mobile internet has grown steadily and reached about 20% of mobile phones in Brazil in the first half of 2012. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Brazil Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Brazil Political SWOT 8
Brazil Economic SWOT 9
Brazil Business Environment SWOT 10
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings 11
Table: Americas Consumer Electronics Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 13
Consumer Electronics Market 14
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 15
AV Devices 19
Table: AV Sales, 2009-2016 19
Mobile Communications 22
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 22
Consumer Electronics Industry 27
Table: Electronics Industry Output, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 27
Table: Electronics Balance Of Trade Forecast, 2016 (US$mn) 28
Table: Electronics Industry Output By Segment, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 34
Table: Consumer Electronics Sales Overview, 2009-2016 (US$mn)) 35
Industry Developments 37
Macroeconomic Forecast 40
Table: Brazil Economic Activity, 2011-2016 42
Competitive Landscape 43
Company Profiles 51
Positivo Informatica 51
Demographic Outlook 54
Table: Brazil’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 55
Table: Brazil’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 56
Table: Brazil’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: Brazil’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57
Brazil Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
BMI Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58
Electronics Industry 58