Cambodia Power Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 46
The Cambodia Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Cambodia's power industry.
BMI View:
The major players in Asian power supply are clamouring to invest in Cambodia, with the result that huge capacity expansion can be expected from around 2015, as hydro, gas and coal-based schemes are introduced. This should leave the country with plentiful spare generation, even if annual electricity consumption grows at an average rate of 13.2% per annum over our 10-year forecast period to 2021. Neighbouring Vietnam, which will finance a number of power projects, plans to make good use of Cambodia’s potential export capability, as does Thailand if a major coal-fired scheme comes to fruition.
Hydropower expansion is already under way and there is a long queue of potential projects with strong regional backing. Several are set to proceed, with a surge in hydro-based supply likely from around 2016.
Domestic gas resources could contribute additional capacity, while the utilisation of renewables is set to rise rapidly from a low base. New coal-fired stations are also in the planning stage, with Cambodia open to the long-term possibility of nuclear energy.
Key trends and developments in the Cambodian electricity market:
- Thai power producer Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding has formed a joint venture
(JV) with Cambodian businessman Ly Yong Phat. The JV will undertake the construction of a US$3bn coal-fired power plant in the Cambodian province of Koh Kong. This agreement comes after Ratchaburi completed a feasibility study for the 1,800 megawatt (MW) plant in February 2012. The JV, named KK Power, is also planning to invest up to US$30mn in transmission lines that will run between the new facility and the Tatay hydropower plant in Koh Kong. KK Power is in negotiations with Thai officials regarding tariffs for the coal power plant. If completed, the Koh Kong project would be the largest power plant in Cambodia. Around 90% of the power is to be sold to Thailand.
- During the period 2012-2021, Cambodia’s overall power generation is expected to increase by an annual average of 24.0%, reaching 10.7TWh. Driving this growth is a new gas-fired scheme that is in the pipeline and should enter service during the forecast period, as well as a massive hydropower expansion programme that includes several dams with capacities exceeding 100MW.
- Following anticipated real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2012, BMI forecasts average annual growth of 6.6% between 2012 and 2021. The population is expected to rise from the 2012 level of 14.5mn to 16.1mn during the period to 2021, and net power consumption looks set to increase from 2.49TWh in 2012 to 7.69TWh by 2021. During the period 2012-2021, the average annual growth rate for electricity demand is forecast at 13.2%.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Cambodia Power SWOT 6
Regional Industry Overview 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Cambodia Snapshot (Macro) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data, 2011-2021 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Cambodia Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation and Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 12
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Generation Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 13
Table: Cambodia Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Cambodia Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 16
Electricity Consumption 21
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 21
Table: Cambodia Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 21
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 22
Table: Cambodia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 22
Table: Cambodia Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Long Term Forecasts 23
Table: Cambodia Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 23
Table: Cambodia Trade Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 23
Key Policies/Market Structure 25
Regulation and Competition 25
Pricing 26
Key Projects Database 27
Table: Key Projects Database 27
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 29
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Cambodia’s Power Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Rewards 34
Risks 35
Competitive Landscape/Company Monitor 36
Glossary of Terms 38
Table: Glossary of Terms 38
Methodology And Sources 39
Industry Forecasts 39
Power Industry - Data Methodology 40
Generation and Consumption Data 40
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 41
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 41
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 43
Sources 45
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