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Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 149
The Ukraine Shipping Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, shipping associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Ukraine's shipping industry.
A new law which will better protect private firms operating in Ukraine's port sector is likely to lead to greater interest from investors in the country's ports. Under the new law, any infrastructure built through private investment will become the property of the investor.
We believe that this new law is in answer to problems faced at the Port of Illichivsk by Ukrtranscontainer (UTC), the Ukrainian subsidiary of Russia's National Container Company (NCC).
The port operator's concession was suspended in mid 2009 after UTC had invested over US$61mn in the facility. UTC once more operates at Illichivisk and this new law should ensure against such an occurrence happening again. It should also lay to rest other port operator's fears about moving into the Ukrainian maritime sector.
With investment protected, BMI expects further expansion at the nation's ports. One massive investment project in the container shipping sector is already underway at the Port of Odessa, due for launch next year. The Quarantine Mole project is being developed by German/Ukrainian port operator HPC Ukraina and is due for completion in 2013. It will provide the port with two new container berths and a draught of 16 metres (m), allowing it to cater for the largest container vessels. The facility will increase Odessa's container handling capacity to 1.2mn twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU).
Expansion projects such as Quarantine Mole offer upside risk to our forecasts over the medium term.
Stronger growth is required at both the Port of Odessa and Illichivsk over the medium term, as both ports are struggling to recapture their pre-2009 levels.
Headline Industry Data:
- 2012 Port of Odessa tonnage throughput forecast to grow 5.5%, over the mid-term we project a 23.8% increase.
- 2012 Port of Odessa container throughput forecast to decline by 2.8%, over the mid-term we project a 15.4% increase.
- 2012 total trade growth forecast at 4.5%.
Key Industry Trends:
Odessa Benefits From Auto Imports Outperformance Car imports via Odessa's roll-on, roll-off (ro-ro) terminal offer the Ukrainian port some respite from the slowdown in trade, with the country's maritime sector buffeted by slowing tonnage throughput and declines in container volumes. Automotive imports are forecast to record double-digit growth in 2012 and are outpacing the country's overall projected import growth.
Yuzhny Throughput Down, But Handling Mega Bulk Vessels The port of Yuzhny has handled one of its biggest vessels to date, the V Kerkis, a 209,000 deadweight tonne (DWT) bulk carrier. The ship docked at Yuzhny and loaded iron ore for export to China. Despite its ability to handle mega vessels Yuzhny's throughput has dropped y-o-y in the first eight months of the year. Total tonnage throughput at the port fell by 0.8% to 15mn tonnes in January-August 2012.
Risks To Outlook:
UTC's resumption of work at the Port of Illichivsk offers upside risk to our container and total throughput forecasts for the medium term. The port's box throughput suffered from the twin forces of the loss of UTC in 2009 and the global downturn, with container throughput falling by 59.5%. The port has struggled to recover from this and our current projections indicate that the facility will not be able to recapture the 670,556TEUs it handled in 2008 over the medium term. We expect UTC to address the issue of the port's comparatively low box throughput and so there is upside risk to our current forecasts.
At the Port of Odessa we also highlight upside risks to our medium term forecast, with the Quarantine Mole project – being developed by German/Ukrainian port operator HPC Ukraina – currently underway and due for completion in 2013. The terminal will provide the port with two new container berths and a draught of 16m, allowing it to cater for the largest container vessels, which we believe is vital as the current trend in the container shipping sector is for lines to use bigger ships.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Ukraine Shipping SWOT 7
Ukraine Political SWOT 8
Ukraine Economic SWOT 9
Ukraine Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Overview – Container Shipping 11
More Positive Box Outlook In H212 11
Box Supply Demand Imbalance Worsens 12
Concerted Rate Push Must Continue 21
Bunker Price Still A Worry 24
2013: A Year Of Mega Realisation 25
Containerisation Revolution Hits Dry Bulk 32
Global Overview – Dry Bulk Shipping 35
Stockpiling: A Threat To Dry Bulk Shipping 35
Overcapacity A Long Term Problem 38
Bankruptcies To Continue 41
Vale's Forced Diversification Hedges Against China Slowdown 45
Protectionism Trend Takes Off 50
Global Overview – Liquid Bulk Shipping 55
Executive Summary: Unconventional Sectors To Outshine Traditional Crude 55
Dirty Tanker Index To Remain Depressed 56
Bunker Prices Down, But So Are Rates 61
Table: BMI's Bunker Fuel Forecasts, 2010-2016 ($/Bbl) 61
Iran Sanctions Continue To Affect Crude Shipping 64
Saudi Arabian Merger Bad News For Other Operators 66
Table: Biggest Operators Of VLCCs & ULCCs 67
Bullish On Golar LNG Prospects 68
Tight Market Creates Boom Times For Rig Sector 72
Industry Trends And Developments 76
Ukraine Container Shipping Market Overview 78
Industry Forecast 82
Port of Odessa 82
Port of Illichivsk 86
Table: Trade Overview, 2009-2017 89
Table: Key Trade Indicators, 2009-2017 (US$mn) 90
Table: Major Port Data, 2009-2016 91
Table: Main Import Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 91
Table: Main Export Partners, 2002-2009 (US$mn) 92
Company Profiles 93
Ukraine Shipping Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
HPC Ukraina 93
Maersk Line 95
Mediterranean Shipping Company (MSC) 01
CMA CGM 05
COSCO Container Lines Company Limited (COSCON) 12
Evergreen Line 21
China Shipping Container Line (CSCL) 30
Hanjin Shipping (Container Operations) 36
Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) (Container) 40
Demographic Outlook 145
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 46
Table: Ukraine's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 47
Table: Ukraine's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 48
Table: Ukraine's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 48