Australia Autos Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 58
The Australia Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Australia's automotive industry.
Australia’s auto industry presents a decidedly mixed picture as we enter the final quarter of 2012. On the one hand, new car sales remain strong, with the country on course to post a record figure for the year.
However, the outlook for domestic auto production is becoming clouded, with Australian consumers turning away from locally-produced larger sedan models towards cheaper, more fuel-efficient imports.
Domestic production was up by just 2.8% over the first eight months of 2012.
New car sales were up by 9.4% year-on-year (y-o-y) over the first eight months of 2012, to reach 728,047 vehicles (cars, SUVs, light commercials and trucks), according to data released by Australia’s Federal Chamber of Automotive Industries (FCAI) in September 2012. Given this strong performance across 2012 to date, BMI believes the time is right to make an upward revision to our new car sales forecast for the year. We are now forecasting a 6.5% increase in new car sales, to 1,074,232 units.
So far, there appears to have been no impact on new car sales from the ‘carbon tax’ introduced in July 2012. This would indicate that Australian consumers retain an appetite for ‘big-ticket’ items such as new cars, even when confronted with higher living costs resulting from this tax. However, one significant cloud on the horizon is the rapidly-slowing Australian economy, with BMI forecasting growth to slow to 0.9% in 2013, due to falling demand for exports from China and a concomitant slowdown in domestic economic activity. Unemployment is also rising, which will likely weigh on disposable income.
Consequently, BMI is forecasting a slower growth rate for Australian new car sales in 2013.
Despite booming new car sales, the outlook for domestic auto production in Australia is looking increasingly clouded as we approach the end of 2012. In July 2012, Ford Australia announced plans to cut 15% of its Australian workforce, and cut output by almost 30%, as demand for its Falcon model falls.
Sales of Falcon car and trucks slumped by 25% y-o-y in H112 alone, as Australian consumers look to buy smaller, more fuel-efficient cars. Rival manufacturer GM Holden is also rethinking its entire Australian production strategy away from larger sedans such as the Commodore.
Falling production also means a downbeat outlook for the Australian auto supply chain. In August 2012,
the Australian Automotive Aftermarket Association (AAAA) warned that 30,000 jobs from the country's auto component manufacturing sector could be lost without financial support from the federal government. In response to this call for action, the Australian government announced the establishment of a AUD35mn support fund for the country's automotive suppliers in September 2012, which have been struggling with declining domestic production. However, while this funding gives companies the opportunity to diversify their business and increase their chances of survival, BMI believes there are still a number of issues to be addressed regarding the sector's competitiveness in the years ahead (please refer to the Suppliers section of this report for further information).
Executive Summary 6
SWOT Analysis 7
Australia Autos Industry SWOT 7
Australia Political SWOT 8
Australia Economic SWOT 9
Australia Business Environment SWOT 10
Global Overview 11
Europe Still Dominates Autos Outlook 11
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 11
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 16
Table: Business Environment Ratings -- Auto Industry Asia Pacific 19
Regional Overview 20
Rising Car Ownership Brings Insurers To EMs 20
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 22
Table: Australia - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 25
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Sales 26
Table: Australia Autos Sales 2009-2016 26
Production 28
Table: Australia Autos Production, 2009-2016 28
Table: Australia – Monthly Vehicle Production 2008-2012 29
Trade 30
Table: Australia Autos Trade, 2009-2016 30
Competitive Landscape 31
Cars 31
Table: Australia – Top 10 Best-Selling Manufacturers 2011 32
Company Developments 32
Pick-Ups 36
Electric Vehicles 36
Motorcycles 37
Table: Australia – Top 10 Best-Selling Motorcycle Manufacturers 2011 39
Suppliers 40
Company Monitor 43
Asia Key To Delphi Post-Bankruptcy Growth But Not Without Competition 43
Company Profiles 46
Ford Motor 46
GM Holden 48
Toyota Motor 50
Australia Autos Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Country Snapshot: Australia Demographic Data 52
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 53
Table: Australia's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 54
Table: Australia's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 55
Table: Australia's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 55
BMI Methodology 56
How We Generate Our Forecasting Model 56
Sources 57
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