- Language: English
- Published: July 2012
- Region: Thailand
Thailand Power Report Q4 2012
- Published: October 2012
- Region: Thailand
- 50 pages
- Business Monitor International
The Thailand Power Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, power associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Thailand's power industry.
Electricity generation and consumption in Thailand is set to grow modestly in 2012, as the country recovers from the effects of the 2011 floods that led to the closure of four power plants. We expect the sector to grow modestly in the long term, but highlight that the country's regulatory environment will pose significant challenges. The country's nuclear energy ambitions have also been put on a halt due to safety concerns, with renewable energy targets raised to compensate for this.
We predict that electricity generation will grow by 4.0% in 2012, to reach 152.9 terrawatt hours (TWh).
This is significantly higher than the historical five-year average of 2.3%, as the country recovers from the effects of floods in 2011. Heavy monsoon rains in October 2011 led to severe flooding in many parts of the country, including Bangkok, and the closure of four power plants with a total capacity of 1,210 megawatts (MW). These plants have been brought online again, and restoration efforts have also driven up electricity consumption.
Over the longer term, we forecast electricity generation in Thailand to grow at an annual average rate of 4.8% between 2012 and 2021, underpinned by an average real GDP growth of 4.1% per annum. This is a downward revision from our previous forecast of 5.0%, which we attribute to the continued uncertainty surrounding the country's political landscape and economic outlook. Natural gas will continue to play a pivotal role in the country's energy mix, as opposition from the public has led to a massive delay in the Thailand's nuclear power programme. We thus expect the share of natural gas in total generation to increase, from 74.7% in 2012 to 77.7% in 2021.
Key trends and regulatory changes in the industry:
- The Thai government updated its green energy agenda in March 2012 with the ambitious
'Alternative Energy Development Plan' (2012-2021). The plan states that 25% of total energy consumption would derive from alternative energy sources, and set targets of 2GW of solar capacity, 1.2 gigawatts (GW) of wind capacity and 3.63GW of biomass, all by 2021.
- Construction on the controversial Xayaburi dam has restarted, despite opposition from Vietnam and Cambodia. The Thai government also affirmed a power purchase agreement for 95% of the dam's electricity output in January 2012, going against the regional decision-making process.
- The Thai government is set to open bids for six gas-based independent power projects (IPPs)
with a capacity of 5400MW. Announced after Thailand’s National Energy Policy Council approved the third revision of the country’s 2010-2030 power development plant. All IPPs use natural gas.
- In April 2011, the Provincial Electricity Authority (PEA) stated that they would invest THB400bn into developing a smart grid over the following 15 years, and followed the announcement with a roadmap for the project’s implementation. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Thailand Power SWOT 6
Regional Industry Overview 7
Industry Forecast Scenario 11
Thailand Snapshot (Macro) 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Economic and Demographic Data 11
Table: Country Snapshot: Power Sector 11
Thailand Forecast Scenario 12
Electricity Generation And Power Generating Capacity 12
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 12
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts , 2015 - 2021 14
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2016 16
Table: Thailand Electricity Generating Capacity Long-Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 17
Electricity Consumption 24
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 24
Table: Thailand Total Electricity Consumption Long-Term Forecasts, 2015-2021 24
Transmission & Distribution, Imports & Exports 25
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 25
Table: Thailand Electric Power Transmission And Distribution Losses Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021 25
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2010-2016 25
Table: Thailand Trade Data And Forecasts, 2015-2021 26
Key Policies/Market Structure 27
Regulation and Competition 27
Sustainable Energy Policies 28
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Asia Regional Power Risk/Reward Ratings 30
Table: Asia Power Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Power Risk/Reward Ratings 36
Thailand’s Power Rating 36
Competitive Landscape and Company Profiles 37
Electricity Generating Authority Of Thailand (EGAT) 38
Independent Power (Thailand) 39
Glow Energy 39
Ratchaburi Electricity Generating Holding Public Company Limited (RATCH) 40
Glossary of Terms 42
Table: Glossary of Terms 42
Methodology And Sources 43
Industry Forecasts 43
Power Industry - Data Methodology 44
Thailand Power Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Generation and Consumption Data 44
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 45
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 45
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 47