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Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 95
The Trinidad and Tobago Oil and Gas Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, oil and gas associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Trinidad and Tobago's oil and gas industry.
Times are tough for Trinidad & Tobago’s oil and gas industry, with 2011 oil output having slumped, and US demand for the country’s gas exports on the slide. The government expects an upturn in 2012 drilling activity and, with several new smaller international oil companies (IOCs) now involved as well as a 2012 deepwater bidding round, there is some scope to slow the rate of decline in oil production.
The main trends and developments we highlight in the Trinidad & Tobago (T&T) oil and gas sector are:
- Upstream companies operating in T&T will invest US$3bn in oil and gas exploration activities over 2012, Energy Minister Kevin Ramnarine said in February 2012. Some 15 exploration wells will be drilled, mainly by Canada-based companies Parex Resources and Niko Resources and by BP, he said. Five drilling rigs are currently operating in the country, with six seismic programmes continuing or starting in 2012.
- BP Trinidad and Tobago (BPTT) plans to spend US$1.1bn in 2012, which will include seismic surveys of its existing acreage, its president said at an energy conference in T&T in February.
- Bayfield Energy made a discovery in T&T’s Galeota block in March 2012. Preliminary estimates extrapolated from the first well indicate that the area could hold 32mn bbl of recoverable oil, with potential for production of greater than 1,000 barrels per day (b/d).
- In April 2012, national oil company (NOC) Petrotrin confirmed that cluster six of the onshore Southwest Soldado field could hold at least 48mn bbl of both light and heavy varieties of oil.
Petrotrin will embark on a forward drilling programme in 2013.
- The 2012 deepwater licensing round, which was launched in April 2012, ended on September 4 2012 after a month-long extension. Six offshore oil and gas blocks in north-eastern and eastern Trinidad were put on offer. In order to increase interest, more seismic information on its deepwater acreages were made available while it also increased cost recovery rate to 80% to make it more competitive.
Results are expected to be announced in October 2012.
- We estimate that crude oil and gas liquids production fell by almost 24% in 2011, largely due to maintenance activity and unexpected field disruptions. There should be some recovery in 2012, but the overall trend is one of falling output unless substantial investment can unlock new volumes. We are forecasting supply of 132,380b/d in 2012, easing to 126,500b/d by 2016. Output could be no more than 111,500b/d by 2021. Given demand is set to rise from an estimated 43,710b/d to 53,130b/d over the period, net exports by 2021 are set to be just 50,000b/d.
- We have revised our forecast for T&T's gas production. We now expect the fall in output experienced in 2011 to last through 2014, declining from an estimate of 40.0bcm in 2012 to 38.8bcm in 2014.
This trend will reverse as the return of BPTT's capacity, together with new projects, pushes production back up. In 2016, production is forecast to have returned to 40.7bcm and will continue to rise to 45.8bcm by the end of our forecast period in 2021.
- In 2012, T&T’s oil and gas exports are set to yield US$13.2bn – falling towards US$8.25bn by 2021 as oil export volumes are reduced and gas sales volumes remain fairly constant.
At the time of writing we assume an OPEC basket oil price of US$107.05/bbl for 2012, falling to US$99.10/bbl in 2013 and US$93.25/bbl in 2016. Global GDP in 2012 is forecast at 2.17%, reflecting a faltering recovery in the US and uncertainty with regard to the eurozone debt crisis. For 2013, growth is estimated at 2.46%.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Trinidad & Tobago Oil and Gas SWOT 7
Global Energy Market Outlook 8
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 8
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 10
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 12
Regional Energy Market Outlook 16
Trinidad & Tobago Energy Market Overview 19
Industry Forecast Scenario 21
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 21
Table: Trinidad & Tobago Oil & Gas – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 22
Oil And Gas Reserves 23
Oil Supply And Demand 25
Gas Supply And Demand 27
Refining And Oil Products Trade 29
Revenues/Import Costs 30
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 30
Oil And Gas Infrastructure 31
Oil Refineries 31
Table: Refineries In Trinidad & Tobago 31
Service Stations 32
Oil Storage Facilities 32
Oil Terminals/Ports 32
LNG Terminals 32
Table: LNG Terminals In Trinidad & Tobago 32
Gas Storage Facilities 33
Gas Pipelines 33
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Latin American Oil & Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Upstream Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Table: Downstream Risk/Reward Ratings 38
T&T Upstream Rating – Overview 40
T&T Upstream Rating – Rewards 40
T&T Upstream Rating – Risks 40
T&T Downstream Rating – Overview 40
Competitive Landscape 41
Executive Summary 41
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Players 42
Overview/State Role 43
Licensing And Regulation 43
Government Policy 44
Licensing Rounds 44
Table: Key Upstream Players 46
Trinidad And Tobago Oil & Gas Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Table: Key Downstream Players 46
Company Monitor 47
Petroleum Company of T&T (Petrotrin) 47
The National Gas Company of Trinidad & Tobago (NGC) 52
BP Energy Company of Trinidad & Tobago (BPTT) 60
BG Trinidad & Tobago 64
BHP Petroleum Trinidad 68
EOG Resources 74
Sinopec – Summary 76
Chevron – Summary 76
Repsol – Summary 76
Total – Summary 77
ALNG – Summary 77
Unipet – Summary 77
Niko Resources – Summary 77
Others – Summary 78
Latin America – Regional Appendix 80
Table: Oil Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 80
Table: Oil Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 81
Table: Oil Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 81
Table: Oil Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 82
Table: Refining Capacity – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 82
Table: Refining Capacity – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 83
Table: Gas Consumption – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 83
Table: Gas Consumption – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 84
Table: Gas Production – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 84
Table: Gas Production – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 85
Table: LNG Exports – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2009-2016 (bcm) 85
Table: LNG Exports – Long-Term Forecasts, 2014-2021 (bcm) 86
Glossary Of Terms 87
Table: Glossary Of Terms 87
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 89
Ratings Overview 89
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 90
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 90
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 91
BMI Methodology 93
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 93
Energy Industry 93
Cross checks 94