United States Metals Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 65
The United States Metals Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, metals associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on United States's metals industry.
BMI View:
We continue to forecast modest growth across the refined metals sector in the US as the economic recovery gains traction. Spurred on by growth in key metals consuming sectors we anticipate refiners and metals producers will cautiously bring production back online in order to meet demand. That said, production and consumption will likely remain below pre-crisis levels as the threat of economic weakness in China and the eurozone looms over the global economy.
We forecast relatively slow growth across the metals sector in the US between 2012 and 2016 given the stumbling economic recovery. As the world's largest economy continues to gain steam following the global financial crisis, both production and consumption will improve, albeit at a slow pace. The economy continues to recover from the global financial crisis. With large portions of production capacity taken offline in the wake of the economic downturn, refiners will slowly bring output back online as demand rises – especially from the construction and consumer goods sectors. We believe slow but steady growth in the metals sector will roughly track broader GDP growth, which we forecast to average 2.3%
over the forecast period. That said, we highlight that the looming expiry of the 2001/2003 tax cuts at the end of 2012, and automatic spending cuts set to be implemented in January 2013, are of high stakes to the US economy. Total expiry of the tax cuts, and cutting government spending, would almost certainly tip an already-weak economy into a severe recession, with a fiscal contraction that could easily amount to 3.0-
5.0% of GDP.
The US metals sector does rely somewhat on imports of some mineral inputs such as bauxite and tin. We forecast little change in the nature of US metals trade, but recognise that sharp changes to metals prices could impact this dynamic. We expect the bulk of metals sector production will be supplied by domestic mineral resources to support US industries rather than for export abroad. We also note that domestic US companies will dominate production of their respective metals, although laws on foreign ownership of US based companies enables some foreign companies to operate as well.
Executive Summary 5
Short-Term Weakness To Persist As Recovery Stumbles On 5
SWOT Analysis 8
United States Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast 9
Steel: Durable Goods Spur Slow Growth 9
Table: US – Steel Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes unless stated otherwise) 11
Table: US – Steel Industry Historical Data ('000 tonnes unless stated otherwise) 12
Aluminium: High Costs & Weak Prices To Undermine Production 13
Table: US – Refined Aluminium Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 18
Copper: Housing Recovery A Tailwind To Consumption 19
Table: US – Refined Copper Production & Consumption (mn tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 22
Zinc: Production Under Pressure 23
Table: US – Refined Zinc Production & Consumption ('000 tonnes, unless stated otherwise) 25
Macroeconomic Outlook 26
Fiscal Cliff The Biggest Risk 26
Table: United States – GDP By Expenditure (Real Growth %) 29
Commodities Forecast 30
Steel Price Forecast – Steel To Average US$360/tonne In 2013 30
Table: Steel Forecast 30
Table: Global Steel Forecasts 36
Commodity Strategy – Monthly Metals Update 36
Aluminium: Support At US$1,800/tonne Likely To Hold 38
Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 40
Iron Ore: Don't Bet On A Sustainable Recovery 42
Lead: Potential For Short-Term Rally 44
Nickel: No Turnaround Coming 45
Steel: More Pain Ahead 46
Tin To Outperform 47
Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 49
Table: Select Commodities – Performance & BMI Forecasts 50
Competitive Landscape 51
Steel Sector Opportunities 51
Base Metals Production Remains Consolidated 51
Company Profiles 53
ArcelorMittal 53
Table: ArcelorMittal – Key Financial Data 56
Alcoa 57
Financial Data 60
Table: Alcoa – Financial Data 60
Nucor 61
Table: Nucor – Key Financial Data 63
United States Metals Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
BMI Methodology 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Cross Checks 64
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