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Romania Autos Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 45
The Romania Autos Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, auto associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Romania's automotive industry.
Romania was the second-worst performing auto market in the EU in August 2012, with new vehicle registrations falling by 42.3% and only Greece reporting a more substantial decline, according to the European Manufacturer’s Association. Just 5,044 new passenger cars were registered in Romania during the month, down from 8,747 in August 2011, with Land Rover, Honda and Renault’s locally manufactured Dacia leading the market. This decline appears more modest when considered as part of the January to August 2012 period, coming in at jut a 9.4% decline y-o-y.
Data from the country’s Driving Licences and Car Registration Department meanwhile indicate that Romania’s second-hand autos market is booming. Used car sales increased by 147% y-o-y for June, July and August combined, from 18,687 units in summer 2011 to 46,217.
These thrifty consumer trends are symptomatic of the gloomy economic picture in Romania and beyond.
The government of President Traian Basescu, who recently escaped impeachment when a constitutional court ruled that a referendum on the matter was too poorly attended to be valid, has been pursuing necessary austerity measures in recent years. These have, however, created a flat retail environment characterised by weak consumer confidence, hence the decline in new car purchases to the advantage of previously-owned models. Romania’s political climate could undergo a sea change in December 2012,
however, if its current Prime Minister, the left-leaning Victor Ponta, is elected as president in place of Basecu as is widely anticipated.
Despite these turbulent times, BMI is still expecting to see a 11.55% y-o-y increase in Romanian car sales to 111,472 units for 2012, up from 99,932 at the end of 2011. Of this total, passenger car sales are expected to rise by 13% to 92,347 units and commercial vehicles by 5.03% to 19,125. Growth remains tepid but is to be welcomed after four years of contraction in the Romanian market.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Romania Autos Industry SWOT 6
Romania Political SWOT 7
Romania Economic SWOT 7
Romania Business Environment SWOT 8
Global Overview 9
Table: Passenger Car Sales H112 9
Industry Risk/Reward Ratings 13
Poor Show From Western Europe Hurts Region's Score In BMI Ratings 13
Table: BMI Industry Risk/Reward Ratings For Autos In Europe 17
Regional Overview 18
Investments In Emerging Europe 18
Macroeconomic Forecast Scenario 24
Table: Romania - GDP By Expenditure, Real Growth %, 2008-2016 26
Industry Forecast Scenario 27
Table: Romania Autos Sales, Production And Trade, 2011-2016 27
Competitive Landscape 30
Table: Romania Car Sales 30
Electric Vehicles 31
Used Vehicles 32
Company Monitor 34
Fiat Profits Continue To Tumble 34
Company Profiles 36
Automobile Dacia 37
Country Snapshot 39
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 40
Table: Romania's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 41
Table: Romania's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 42
Table: Romania's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 42
BMI Methodology 43
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 43
Automobile Industry 43