Poland Power Market Outlook to 2030 - Business Propensity Indicator (BPI), Market Trends, Regulation and Competitive Landscape
- Published: February 2012
- Region: Poland
The Poland Renewables Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, banking associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Poland's renewables industry.
With European Union (EU) regulations targeting both carbon emissions and renewable energy sources, Poland is feeling pressured to diversify its coal-heavy electricity mix towards renewables. Poland aims to derive 15% of its energy production from renewable sources by 2020, and we expect the wind segment to drive this growth and fulfil the ambitious target.
We have adopted a positive outlook for Poland's non-hydro renewables industry, primarily on account of the country's relatively positive regional economic outlook, favourable climate for renewable energy generation and a strong project pipeline (particularly for onshore and offshore wind). However, we have previously highlighted some major downside risks to our forecast, and these are beginning to materialise.
Most pertinently that regulatory uncertainty and funding insecurity surrounding the country's renewables policy is likely to dampen investor appetite and prompt concern amongst the industry's key players.
That said, the country is taking steps towards the target and recent developments in the industry include:
- Polska Grupa Energetyczna (PGE) received three permits from the government in April 2012,
which will allow them to build three offshore wind farms on the Baltic Sea. The company has applied to build offshore projects totalling 3450MW of capacity, and have begun negotiations with French nuclear giant Areva in order to develop them.
- GDF Suez will build what it claims will be the world's biggest biomass power plant in southeast Poland. The 205MW power plant is estimated to cost EUR240mn (US$320.7mn), which we believe will be fully operational by 2013. Other biomass projects include a biomass-fired boiler in the Jaworzno III power plant, for which Tauron signed an agreement for a government subsidy in January 2012.
- It was reported in August 2012 that two new solar farms were being developed in Rzedów and Legnica, with a combined capacity of roughly 40MW. Project construction is expected to commence in 2013, with completion scheduled two years after.
- Amendments of the renewable energy law were released in May 2012, stating that the government will maintain financial support for current projects, but limit incentives for renewable projects commencing from 2013 onwards. More recently, in late July 2012, the Polish Ministry of Economy released yet another version of a law. The proposed Renewable Energy Law aims to implement a number of initiatives that encourage the development of renewables and raise the national renewables share target to 15.5% by 2020. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Poland Power SWOT 6
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 7
Table: Poland Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 8
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 10
Table: Poland Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2015 - 2021 11
Renewable Projects Database 16
Table: Major Projects – Renewables 16
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 18
Targets (Renewables and Emissions) 18
Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Poland Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Competitive Landscape 22
Glossary of Terms 24
Table: Glossary of Terms 24
Glossary of Terms 25
Table: Glossary of Terms 25
Methodology and Sources 26
Industry Forecasts 26
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology 27
Generation Data 27
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 27
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 28
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 30