Israel Retail Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 71
The Israel Retail Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, retail associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Israel's retail industry.
The Israel Retail Report examines the long-term potential of the local consumer market, but flags shortterm concerns about the impact on Israel’s economic outlook of a rapidly deflating housing market.
The report examines how best to maximise returns in the Israeli retail market while minimising investment risk, and also explores the impact of lacklustre external demand due to the slump in Europe and the US on the Israeli consumer and on the ability of producers and exporters to realise returns in the short term.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the Israeli retail sector, as they seek to maximise the growth opportunities offered by the local market.
Israeli per capita consumer spending is forecast to increase by 26% to 2016, compared with a regional growth average of only 2%. The country comes fifth out of eight in BMI’s Middle East and Africa Retail Risk/Reward Ratings, although it outperforms significantly for Risk.
Among all retail categories, over-the-counter (OTC) pharmaceuticals will be the outperformer through to 2016 in growth terms, with sales forecast to increase by nearly 40% between 2012 and 2016, from US$0.44bn to US$0.61bn, with solid demand for patented medicines among the wealthier population.
In the competitive arena, BMI sees upside potential in the regulatory changes that are driving marked OTC and non-patented market growth.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Lacklustre external demand is weighing on the Israeli economy, and weak data have led BMI to revise down its 2012 real GDP growth forecast from 3.2% to 2.8%. However, we hold to our view that supportive fiscal and monetary policy and a still positive outlook for fixed capital formation are likely see the economy avoiding a sharp deceleration this year. Our real GDP growth forecast for 2013 is 3.3%.
- BMI expects consumer spending to hold up relatively well in the near term. After taking a hit in Q411 (with growth falling to 1.6% y-o-y, from an average of 4.9% in the previous three quarters), total household consumption growth bounced back to 4.2% y-o-y in Q112, according to preliminary government data. We forecast private consumption growth of 3.5% and 4.0% in 2012 and 2013 respectively, compared with 3.7% last year.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Israel Retail Business Environment SWOT 6
Israel Political SWOT 7
Israel Economic SWOT 8
Market Overview 9
Current Trends 9
Key Players 10
Industry Forecast Scenario 14
Consumer Outlook 14
Retail Growth Outlook 16
Table: Retail Sales Indicators, 2009-2016 17
Table: Retail Sales Breakdown By Key Segment, 2012f 19
Macroeconomic Outlook 20
Table: Economic Activity 21
Regional Retail Outlook 23
Table: Middle East And Africa Retail Trends, 2009-2016 23
Table: Middle East And Africa Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (US$bn) 23
Table: Share Of Regional Retail Sales, 2009-2016 (%) 24
Current Trends 25
Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Middle East And Africa Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Table: Regional Retail Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Israel’s Retail Rating 35
Limits To Potential Returns 36
Risks To Realisation Of Returns 36
Consumer Electronics 37
Israel Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 37
Market Overview 38
Table: Distributors For Leading Brands 40
Computers 40
Table: PC Sales, 2009-2016 40
AV Devices 43
Table: Exports, 2009-2016 43
Mobile Handsets 46
Table: Mobile Communications, 2009-2016 46
Table: Cellular Operators And Technology 48
Industry Forecast Scenario 50
Consumer Electronics Market 50
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview (US$mn), 2009-2016 50
Industry Developments 53
OTC Pharmaceuticals 54
Israel Retail Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Israel Pharmaceuticals And Healthcare Industry SWOT 54
Market Overview 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 57
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 57
Table: OTC Medicine Sales, 2008-2016 58
Competitive Landscape 59
Pharmaceutical Industry 59
Domestic Pharmaceutical Industry 59
Table: Selection Of Teva’s Acquisitions 61
Foreign Pharmaceutical Industry 62
Pharmaceutical Company Developments 62
Pharmaceutical Wholesale 63
Demographic Outlook 65
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 66
Table: Israel's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 67
Table: Israel's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 68
Table: Israel's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 68
BMI Methodology 69
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 69
Sources 70
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