Egypt Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 73
The Egypt Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Egypt's defence and security industry.
BMI's Egypt Defence & Security Report for Q113 examines the country’s strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future. The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that President Mohamed Morsi’s consolidation of political power in Q312 was a positive step for Egypt’s future stability. Although this consolidation has come at the expense of the military, the country’s new military commanders appear more interested in working with the president than in staging a coup in defiance of the popular mood.
Domestically, the Egyptian military is now focused on the threat of jihadi terrorists in the Sinai, following an attack there which left 16 soldiers dead and led to the sacking of military chief Field Marshal Hussein Tantawi and other senior commanders.
Regionally, Morsi is repositioning Egypt in a leadership role that could see it play a prominent part in Syria and Iran especially. His criticism of Iranian support for Syrian leader Bashar-al Assad has offered encouragement to observers who feared he may pursue new regional alliances with the likes of Iran.
Nonetheless, he must still work to reassure Israel that he will not negatively affect Israel’s environment,
especially with regard to the Muslim Brotherhood’s links to Hamas.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The various security dilemmas that Morsi faces are discussed in detail. As well as balancing Muslim Brotherhood links with Hamas against Egypt’s treaty obligations to Israel, the president has had to address Muslim anger inspired by an online video that denigrated Islam, while also condemning anti-Western violence as seen in the recent slaying of the US ambassador to Libya.
- The launching of Operation Eagle in the Sinai peninsula, whose objective is to tackle the Salafist militants responsible for killing 16 Egyptian soldiers in August, is also discussed along with its implications for Cairo’s relations with Tel Aviv.
- One major defence procurement programme moved forwards and Egypt has moved closer to procuring two Type 209 submarines from Germany. Again, this caused Israeli concerns, but Germany appears to support the new Egyptian government, pressing ahead with the sale.
- The agreement of an IMF loan facility, combined with financial support from sources such as Saudi Arabia, should ensure both that Egypt avoids economic meltdown and that it is able to continue investing in its armed forces.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Egypt Security SWOT 7
Egypt Defence Industry SWOT 8
Egypt Political SWOT 9
Egypt Economic SWOT 10
Egypt Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
Middle East Security Overview 15
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15
The Middle East In A Global Context 15
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 16
Regional Power Dynamics 26
Nuclear Proliferation 28
External Powers 29
Scenarios For The Middle East 31
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold 32
Security Risk Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34
Political Overview 35
Domestic Politics 35
Another Coup In The Offing? 35
Foreign Relations 37
Cairo-Washington Relations: A Cooler Dynamic To Prevail 37
Long-Term Political Outlook 41
Four Scenarios For The Coming Decade 41
Egypt Security Overview 46
Domestic Security 46
Regional Relationships 48
Armed Forces And Government Spending 52
Armed Forces 52
International Deployments 53
Table: Egypt’s Foreign Deployments 53
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 53
Market Overview 55
Arms Trade Overview 56
Industry Trends And Developments 56
Procurement Trends And Developments 57
Industry Forecast Scenario 60
Egypt Defence & Security Report Q1 2013
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Armed Forces 60
Table: Egypt’s Armed Forces, 2001-2009 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 60
Table: Egypt’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2011-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 61
Defence Expenditure 61
Table: Egypt’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 62
Table: Egypt’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 62
Egypt’s Defence Trade 63
Table: Egypt’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 63
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 64
Economic Outlook Fails To Inspire 64
Company Profiles 67
Multinational Companies 67
General Dynamics 67
General Electric 68
Raytheon (Egypt) 69
Domestic Company 70
Ashmand International 70
BMI Methodology 71
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 71
Defence Industry 71
Sources 72
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