France Defence and Security Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 64
The France Defence and Security Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, defence and security associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on France's defence and security industry.
BMI’s France Defence and Security Report examines the country’s strategic posture, its defence community, order of battle, and current and future procurement programmes.
The report examines the current structure of the French armed forces. It evaluates ongoing defence reform initiatives and examines the position of France in NATO, and its defence commitments around the world.
In addition, it discusses the French defence industry and its performance both in home and international markets.
One key question which BMI’s France Defence and Security Report examines is the feasibility of the country maintaining its high levels of defence spending vis-à-vis its high levels of public debt.
The report outlines several key findings. These include the overriding need for France to continue is fastpaced military reforms to improve the country’s ability to intervene in crises around the world. It asserts that French defence companies continue to offer high quality materiel, and that French contractors are now emerging as sellers of choice in markets around the world. Moreover, the report examines France’s continuing deployment to Afghanistan, along with the recent leading role it played during NATO combat operations in Libya in 2011. Beyond these issues, the report studies French defence spending, and the country’s desire to maintain spending levels above the two percent of GDP goal of NATO.
Several key changes have been made to the Q412 BMI France Defence and Security report. Chiefly these relate to discussions of the following subjects:
- A full discussion of the French military chain of command, defence decision making cycle and the country’s grand strategy.
- A detailed explanation of the orders of battle of the French army, air force and navy, and chances to these within the current government’s defence modernisation process.
- A round-up of the latest defence procurement news across the three French services, including acquisition programmes expected to be launched in the near future. Updates of the latest developments within several of France’s leading defence companies.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
France Political SWOT 6
France Economic SWOT 6
France Business Environment SWOT 7
Global Political Outlook 8
Europe Security Overview 11
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 11
Europe In A Global Context 11
Europe’s Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 11
Security Risk Ratings 18
BMI’s Security Ratings 18
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 18
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 19
Political Overview 21
Domestic Politics 21
Long-Term Political Outlook 22
Security Overview 24
Internal Security Situation 24
Latest Developments 26
Timeline: Internal Threats 26
External Security Situation 27
Armed Forces And Defence Industry 29
Defence Decision Making 29
Order of Battle 30
Defence Modernisation 31
International Deployments and Joint Exercises 33
Table: Principal Deployments Of The French Armed Forces 35
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 36
Market Overview 39
Arms Trade Overview 40
Exports 40
Imports 41
Table: Key Players In The French Defence Industry 42
Procurement Trends and Developments 42
Industry Forecast Scenario 46
Armed Forces 46
Table: France’s Armed Forces, 2000-2008 (‘000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 46
Table: France’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 47
Table: France’s Defence Exports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 47
Table: France’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 47
Table: France’s Defence Trade Balance, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 48
Defence Expenditure 48
France Defence & Security Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: France’s Government Expenditure On Defence Industry, 2009-2016 49
Table: France’s Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2009-2016 (US$mn) 50
Macroeconomic Outlook 51
Company Profiles 54
Dassault Aviation 54
DCNS 56
EADS 58
Thales 60
BMI Methodology 62
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 62
Sources 63
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