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Belarus Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 67
The Belarus Pharmaceuticals and Healthcare Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, pharmaceutical associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Belarus's pharmaceuticals and healthcare industry.
We still expect a contraction in the value of the Belarusian pharmaceutical market in 2012 as a result of the devalued rouble, high inflation and weak household consumption. Belarus remains one of the most risky Eastern European markets, the economy remains vulnerable to political mismanagement and the business environment is undesirable. However, we are expecting stronger growth in 2013, with the pharmaceutical market expected to post its first year of dollar growth since 2010.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Pharmaceuticals: BYR3,598bn in 2011 (US$692mn) to BYR5,334bn (US$651mn) in 2012;
+48.2% in local currency terms and -6.0% in US dollar terms. Local currency US dollar forecast upgraded from Q312 on the basis of updated data.
- Healthcare: BYR12,775bn (US$2.46bn) in 2011 to BYR16,305bn (US$1.99bn) in 2012;
+27.6% in local currency terms and -19.1% in US dollar terms. Forecast virtually unchanged from Q312.
- Medical Devices: BYR2,174bn (US$418mn) in 2011 to BYR3,060bn (US$373mn); +40.8% in local currency terms and -10.8% in US dollar terms. Forecast virtually unchanged since Q312.
The Pharmaceutical risk/reward rating (RRR) score for Belarus increased from 44.4 in Q312 to 45.9 in Q412, due to an upgrade to the pharmaceutical market forecast. Belarus nevertheless remains as the 18th most attractive pharmaceutical market in Central and Eastern Europe,
behind Serbia and ahead of Moldova. Belarus underperforms the regional average for most indicators in the proprietary ranking system, except in country rewards, which assesses factors such as urbanisation and population ageing/growth.
Key Trends And Developments:
- In September 2012, BMI moderately increased its 2012 projections for Belarus's pharmaceutical market to a 6% contraction when measured in US dollar terms (previously an 8.4% US dollar contraction). Due to devaluation of the Belarusian rouble in May and October 2011, coupled with high rates of inflation expected to average over 60% for the full year, nominal growth in Belarusian roubles is expected to be around 48% in 2012. For 2013, BMI's country risk team is not expecting a further devaluation of the currency from its current levels - a hefty unwinding of Belarus's external imbalances into Q212 indicate a stronger balance of payments position,
pointing to stability in the exchange rate. We expect the pharmaceuticals market to post 9.3%
growth in 2013 and 8.6% in US dollars, with inflation still elevated but less damaging than that posted in the early part of 2013.
- In the first six months of 2012, total pharmaceuticals imports into Belarus decreased by 3.5% in US dollar terms. Pharmaceuticals in finished dose form contracted by 7.9% in dollar terms from H111, while stronger vaccine imports and a moderate rise in bulk pharmaceuticals imports offset some of this larger contraction.
BMI Economic View:
Economic growth in Belarus is expected to remain positive in 2012 (though at 3.6% real GDP, growth will fall below the government's target. In 2013, we see growth picking up to 5.5%, though notably exports are set to remain the major driver of growth in light of the severely weakened currency while household demand and corporate investment are likely to struggle over the next few quarters. A key risk to our economic growth forecasts is the prospect of another fiscal spending boost, which would raise 2012's growth at the expense of the country's future potential given the likely knock-on effects on inflation and economic sentiment.
BMI Political View: Despite continued pressure from Western Europe on Belarus to liberalise politically,
we expect upcoming parliamentary elections to yield no change to the political status quo. That said, we do see scope for further domestic protests, similar to those witnessed in the aftermath of presidential elections in December 2010. On the foreign policy front, the diplomatic spat with Sweden has only further cemented Belarus's political isolation from the EU. This is likely to result in a continued shift towards Russia, both economically and politically, which presents huge risks to Belarus's long-term economic potential.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Industry SWOT 7
Belarus Political SWOT 7
Belarus Economic SWOT 8
Belarus Business Environment SWOT 8
Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings 9
Table: CEE Pharmaceutical Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 9
Market Summary 12
Regulatory Regime 15
Counterfeit Drugs 16
Intellectual Property Rights 17
Pricing And Reimbursement 18
Industry Developments 20
Healthcare Sector 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 24
Overall Market Forecast 24
Table: Pharmaceutical Sales Indicators 2008-2016 25
Key Growth Factors – Industry 26
Table: Healthcare Expenditure Indicators 2008-2016 27
Table: Healthcare Governmental Indicators 2008-2016 27
Table: Private Healthcare Indicators 2008-2016 28
Key Growth Factors – Macroeconomic 29
Table: Belarus - Economic Activity 33
Prescription Drug Market Forecast 34
Table: Prescription Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 35
Patented Drug Market Forecast 36
Table: Patented Drug Market Indicators 2008-2016 37
Generic Drug Market Forecast 38
Table: Generic Drug Sales Indicators 2008-2016 39
OTC Medicine Market Forecast 40
Table: OTC Medicine Sales Indicators 2008-2016 42
Pharmaceutical Trade Forecast 43
Table: Exports and Imports Indicators 2008-2016 45
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts 46
Key Risks To BMI’s Forecasts 46
Competitive Landscape 47
Domestic Drugmakers 47
Foreign Drugmakers 49
Pharmaceutical Wholesale And Retail 50
Research And Development 51
Company Profiles 52
Belarus Pharmaceuticals & Healthcare Report Q4 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Demographic Outlook 57
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 58
Table: Belarus' Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 59
Table: Belarus' Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 60
Table: Belarus' Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 60
BMI Methodology 63
How We Generate Our Pharmaceutical Industry Forecasts 63
Pharmaceuticals Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 64
Ratings Overview 64
Table: Pharmaceutical Business Environment Indicators 65
Table: Weighting Of Components 66