Bulgaria Tourism Report 2013
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 55
The Bulgaria Tourism Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, tourism associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Bulgaria's tourism industry.
The Bulgaria Tourism Report examines the strong long-term potential being offered by the local tourism industry, which has the advantage of attracting tourists from both Western and Eastern Europe. In particular, there has been strong growth in arrivals from Russia and Ukraine over recent years,
complementing already strong demand from Germany. However, we caution that the economic crisis in the eurozone could weigh on short-term tourism demand from nations such as Greece in particular.
The report also analyses the growth and risk management strategies being employed by some of the leading players in the local tourism sector (ie: airlines and hotel chains) as they seek to maximise the long-term growth opportunities being offered by the Bulgarian market.
In 2011, Bulgaria welcomed 8,712,821 tourists, an increase of 4% on 2010, according to information from the National Statistical Institute (NSI). This was very much in line with BMI's forecast of 8.7mn for the full year. Romania remains the most important source market for Bulgarian tourism and BMI expects this to continue over our new forecast period through to 2017. Behind Romania, Greece is the second most important source market for Bulgaria, followed by Turkey, Germany and Russia.
The Bulgarian tourism industry was rocked by the July 2012 attack on an Israeli tourist bus in the city of Burgas by a suicide bomber. This could lead to a short-term fall in the number of tourists from Israel visiting Bulgaria, as well as a heightened fear among travellers from other nations about how safe Bulgaria is to visit. That said, BMI believes this attack was likely a one-off incident and Bulgaria will now tighten its security to prevent any similar incidents. For 2012, BMI forecasts a 2% increase in tourist arrivals to 8.89mn and a 4% increase in tourist expenditure (in local currency terms) to BGN5.66bn.
For 2013, BMI has the following forecasts and views:
- BMI believes overall tourist arrivals will continue to show steady growth of 4% per annum over our newly extended forecast period to 2017.
- We forecast arrivals from Eastern Europe will continue to grow at a faster rate than those from Western Europe over the coming years, reflecting strong demand from Russia and Ukraine.
- BMI believes unrestrained hotel construction activity in some of the country's largest seaside and mountain resorts, a shortage of skilled workers in the tourism sector and relatively underdeveloped infrastructure remain key areas the Bulgarian authorities need to address in order to ensure the sustainable development of the tourism industry.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Bulgaria Tourism SWOT 6
Bulgaria Political SWOT 7
Bulgaria Economic SWOT 7
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT 8
Industry Forecast Scenario 9
Arrivals 9
Table: Arrivals, 2009-2017 10
Accommodation 10
Table: Hotels Data, 2009-2017 10
Expenditure 11
Table: Tourist Expenditure And Economic Impact, 2009-2017 11
Inbound Tourism 12
Table: Tourist Arrivals, 2009-2017 13
Outbound Tourism 14
Table: Outbound Tourism, 2009-2017 14
Market Overview – Travel 15
Airports 15
Commercial Airlines 16
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 16
Table: BMI's Oil Price Forecasts And Bloomberg Consensus, Average Price (US$/bbl) 17
Market Overview – Hospitality 26
Recent Accommodation Developments 26
Tour Operators 27
Infrastructure 27
Risk/Reward Ratings 28
Table: Central And Eastern Europe Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings 28
BMI's Security Ratings 28
Table: Europe Security Risk Ratings 29
Table: Europe State Terrorism Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 30
Europe Security Overview 31
Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 31
Europe In A Global Context 31
Europe's Key Security Issues Over The Coming Decade 31
Global Assumptions 38
Table: Global Assumptions, 2011-2017 38
Table: Global & Regional Real GDP Growth, % chg y-o-y 39
Table: Developed Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 40
Table: Emerging Market Exchange Rates, 2011-2014 40
Developed States 40
Bulgaria Tourism Report 2012
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Table: Developed States Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) 41
Emerging Markets 41
Table: Emerging Markets Real GDP Growth Forecasts, 2011-2014 (%) 42
Table: BMI v Bloomberg Consensus Real GDP Growth Forecast, 2012-2013 (%) 43
Company Profiles 44
Albena 44
Bulgaria Air 45
Demographic Outlook 47
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 48
Table: Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 49
Table: Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 50
Table: Rural/Urban Population Split, 1990-2020 50
BMI Methodology 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 51
Tourism Industry 51
Tourism Ratings – Methodology 52
Table: Tourism Risk/Reward Ratings Indicators 53
Table: Weighting Of Components 54
Sources 54
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