Colombia Food and Drink Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, October 2012, Pages: 98
The Colombia Food and Drink Report provides industry professionals and strategists, corporate analysts, food and drink associations, government departments and regulatory bodies with independent forecasts and competitive intelligence on Colombia's food and drink industry.
Weaker-than-expected global economic conditions have led us to revise down our real GDP growth forecast for Colombia from 4.4% to 4.3% in 2013. The ongoing deterioration of the global economy will weigh on Colombian exports and, combined with a moderation in the country’s robust consumer story,
will lead to slower headline growth over the coming years, from the 5.9% expansion the economy witnessed in 2011. Private consumption is likely to remain the principal driver of domestic demand in Colombia over the longer term. Additionally, the country’s large proportion of low-income consumers means Colombia has one of the lowest per capita food consumption rates within the region, leaving considerable room for growth.
Headline Industry Data (in local currency):
- 2013 per capita food consumption = +6.6%; five-year forecast to 2017 = +44.8%.
- 2013 alcoholic drink sales = +3.6%; forecast to 2017 = +19.2%.
- 2013 soft drink sales = +5.2%; forecast to 2017 = +25.7%.
- 2013 mass grocery retail sales = +8.3%; forecast to 2017 = +44.9%.
Key Company Trends:
Juan Valdez Launches in China: In autumn 2012, Colombian coffee producer Juan Valdez launched on the Chinese market with its coffee available through specialist food e-commerce portal Yihaodian China. The decision to launch online sales can be attributed to the fact that e-commerce can more easily reach a national audience across China at competitive prices. The company is also consolidating its presence elsewhere around the world, with plans to enter Mexico and Peru. In the Middle East, the brand could enter Egypt and Turkey over the longer term.
Biedronka Format Prepares for Opening: In autumn 2012, Portuguese retailer Jerónimo Martins confirmed that the opening of its first Biedronka discount store in Colombia will take place ‘between the fourth quarter of 2012 and the first quarter of 2013.’ The retailer has plans to open up to 500 stores over the next five years. The company may also look for acquisitions in order to become one of Colombia’s top three retailers.
Key Risks To Outlook:
Potential Impact Of External Slowdown: A further deterioration in global growth could place downward pressure on energy prices, dampening demand for Colombian exports and reducing foreign direct investment.
BMI Industry View 7
Colombia Food Industry SWOT 8
Colombia Drink Industry SWOT 9
Colombia Mass Grocery Retail Industry SWOT 10
Business Environment 11
BMI’s Core Global Industry Views 11
Table: Core Views 19
Latin America Risk/Reward Ratings 20
Table: Latin America Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Sub-Factor Ratings (scores out of 10) 21
Table: Latin America Q113 Food & Drink Risk/Reward Ratings 24
Colombia Risk/Reward Ratings 25
Macroeconomic Outlook 26
Table: GDP By Expenditure 29
Industry Forecast Scenario 30
Consumer Outlook 30
Food 32
Food Consumption 32
Table: Food Consumption Indicators – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 33
Confectionery 33
Table: Confectionery Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 33
Canned Food 34
Table: Canned Food Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 34
Jams & Jellies 35
Table: Jams & Jellies Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 35
Pasta 36
Table: Pasta Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 36
Dairy 37
Table: Dairy Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 37
Meat 39
Table: Meat Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 39
Fish 40
Table: Fish Volume Sales, Production & Trade – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 41
Drink 42
Hot Drinks 42
Table: Hot Drink Value Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 43
Alcoholic Drinks 43
Table: Alcoholic Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 44
Soft Drinks 45
Table: Soft Drinks Value/Volume Sales – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 45
Mass Grocery Retail 46
Table: Mass Grocery Retail Sales By Format – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 46
Table: Sales Breakdown By Retail Format Type, % 47
Trade 47
Table: Food & Drink Trade Balance – Historical Data & Forecasts, 2010-2017 48
Food 49
Key Company Trends And Developments 49
Nutresa Modernises And Expands 49
Colombia Food & Drink Report Q1 2013
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 4
Aid For Banana Sector 49
Dairy Investment Will Trigger Growth In Remote Areas 50
International Expansion With Focus On The US 50
Growth In Added-Value Products 51
Trade Affected By Venezuelan Relations 52
Market Overview 53
Confectionery 53
Dairy 54
Meat 55
Seafood 55
Drink 57
Key Company Trends And Developments 57
Juan Valdez Launches Into China 57
Colombia’s Coffee Harvest May Disappoint 57
SABMiller Raises Volume Forecasts At Expense Of Price Growth 57
FEMSA Investing In Colombia 60
Opportunities For Coffee 60
Market Overview 61
Hot Drinks 61
Soft Drinks And Bottled Water 62
Alcoholic Drinks 63
Mass Grocery Retail 64
Key Company Trends And Developments 64
Exito Forges Ahead 64
Carrefour’s LatAm Business Tempting Proposition For Walmart 65
Ripley To Open First Colombian Outlet 66
Market Overview 67
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Estimated Number Of Outlets, 2004-2010 69
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Value Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (US$bn) 69
Table: Structure Of Colombia’s MGR Market – Sales By Format, 2004-2010 (COPbn) 69
Table: Average Annual Sales Value By Format, 2010 70
Competitive Landscape 71
Key Players 71
Table: Key Players In Colombia’s Food Sector 71
Table: Key Players In Colombia’s Drink Sector 72
Table: Key Players In Colombia’s Mass Grocery Retail Market 73
Company Profiles 74
Food 74
C Union de Bananeros de Uraba (Uniban) 74
Alianza Team (Tecnologia Empresarial de Alimentos) 76
Grupo Nutresa 77
Drink 79
Postóbon 79
SABMiller Colombia 81
Mass Grocery Retail 83
Almacenes Exito 83
Carrefour (Colombia) 85
Olímpica 87
Colombia Food & Drink Report Q1 2013
© Business Monitor International Ltd
Page 5
Demographic Outlook 88
Table: Colombia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (‘000) 89
Table: Colombia’s Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 90
Table: Colombia’s Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 91
Table: Colombia’s Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 91
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 92
Table: Rewards 92
Table: Risks 93
Weighting 93
Table: Weighting 93
BMI Food & Drink Industry Glossary 94
Food & Drink 94
Mass Grocery Retail 94
BMI Food & Drink Forecasting & Sourcing 96
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 96
Sourcing 97
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