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Peru Petrochemicals Report 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 54
BMI’s Peru Petrochemicals Annual Report examines the potential expansion of the downstream industry,
specifically the opportunities arising from the Camisea project, which could supply the market with an abundance of ethane-rich gas that could support a world-scale, export-oriented petrochemicals complex.
The report also assesses the progress of pipeline infrastructure projects, which will be crucial to feeding the planned downstream polyethylene (PE), ammonia and derivatives complexes.
Potential gas extraction could provide substantial ethane feedstock to justify the creation of a world-scale cracker and associated plants. The second phase of the Southern Andean gas pipeline aims to provide feedstock for a Braskem- and Petroperú-owned petrochemicals plant that is being built in the southern Pacific coastal region. The Peruvian government wants the new petrochemicals complex to be operational by the end of 2015.
A world-scale cracker would require at least 1bn cubic metres (bcm) of ethane feedstock and BMI believes that output needs to be ramped up to meet current domestic requirements in addition to the needs of a petrochemicals complex. Attention has also focused on the development of the fertiliser sector.
Proposed projects could provide 2.41mn tonnes per annum (tpa) of ammonia capacity, but BMI does not believe any of these projects will be completed before 2015. Furthermore, Nitratos del Peru plans to produce around 710,000tpa of ammonia and 350,000tpa of industrial-grade ammonium nitrate.
BMI has the following forecasts/views:
- We are projecting over 13bcm of natural gas output by 2017, which should be sufficient to support plans by PetroPeru and Braskem for a 1mn tpa PE complex.
- BMI does not believe the pipeline infrastructure will be in place to support a world-scale complex by 2016, as envisaged by Ollanta Humala’s administration. An investment decision depends on whether Braskem believes a Peruvian facility will be able to compete with the anticipated surge in US cracker capacity in 2017, when 5.7mn tpa of ethylene production is scheduled to come onstream.
- Peru is currently devoid of olefins capacity and there is unlikely to be any improvement likely in the medium-term. As a result, the country is at the bottom of BMI’s Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), behind Venezuela. Nevertheless, the country’s massive gas reserves mean it has plenty of potential and BMI sees no reason why its score should not, in the long term, improve markedly. However, state intervention has led to a decline in country risk saw.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Peru Petrochemical Industry SWOT 6
Peru Political SWOT Analysis 7
Peru Economic SWOT Analysis 8
Peru Business Environment SWOT Analysis 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts, 2010-2016 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
Latin America Overview 24
Peru Market Overview 29
Market Structure 29
Table: Peru’s Chemicals Plants 30
Industry Trends And Developments 31
Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 33
Table: Americas Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (Scores Out Of 100) 35
Industry Forecast Scenario 36
Table: Peru’s Petrochemical Sector, 2010-2017 37
Macroeconomic Outlook 38
Table: Peru – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 40
Company Monitor 41
Petrobrás Energía Perú 44
Country Snapshot 46
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 47
Table: Peru's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 48
Table: Peru's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 49
Table: Peru's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 49
BMI Methodology 50
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 50
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 50
Cross Checks 51
Business Environment Ratings 52
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 52
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 53
Petrobrás Energía Perú