Singapore Petrochemicals Report 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 54
BMI’s latest Singapore Petrochemicals Report examines recent developments in the industry in the context of cost pressures and the threat of regional market over-supply. The report assesses the short-term trends in Singapore’s petrochemicals production and trade as well as the long-term growth and risk management strategies being employed by the leading players in the sector, as they seek to raise their share of the Asian market.
Petrochemicals output dipped in H211, but made a recovery through H112 with chemical, rubber and plastic products following a similar trajectory. Nevertheless, the country’s net trade surplus in organic chemicals, including ethylene and propylene, showed a clear downward trend throughout the year, while the surplus in primary plastics did not change despite the increase in capacity.
Petrochemicals production should ramp up in 2013 as ExxonMobil completes the start-up of its second petrochemicals complex at Jurong Island, based on a 1mn tonnes per annum (tpa) ethylene unit with associated capacities of 650,000tpa polyethylene (PE), 450,000tpa polypropylene (PP) and 300,000tpa speciality elastomers, as well as an aromatics extraction unit and an oxo alcohol expansion unit. Going forward, expansion will be focused on the aromatics chain – with the Jurong Aromatics Corporation
(JAC) due to start operations in Q414 with total xylenes capacity of 1mn tpa. Meanwhile, Japan’s Asahi Kasei Chemicals (AKC) is planning to add combined solution-polymerized styrene-butadiene rubber
(SSBR) capacity of 100,000tpa by 2015.
BMI has the following forecasts/views:
- Chemicals output declined for the full-year with estimates in the 2-4% range. This was due to a downward shift in capacity utilisation.
- In terms of thermoplastic resins, China will be the driver of global petrochemicals market growth over the long-term and Singapore is ideally placed to capitalise on this expansion in demand.
Segments such as aromatics and synthetic rubber – in which Singapore is intensifying investment – are likely to be key growth areas.
- Singapore remains in fourth place in BMI’s Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs) for Asia, with its score rising 1.3 points to 75.8 compared to the previous year. Despite the country’s small size and lack of indigenous oil and gas resources, it has a positive risk environment,
reliable infrastructure and a large, integrated and growing petrochemicals industry. Singapore is often considered the petrochemicals hub of Asia.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Singapore Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Singapore Political SWOT 7
Singapore Economic SWOT 8
Singapore Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts , 2010-2016 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
Emerging Asia Petrochemicals Overview 24
Singapore Market Overview 28
Jurong Island 29
Industry Trends And Developments 30
Projects And Expansions 30
Table: Singapore Petrochemicals Recent and Forthcoming Projects 30
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 32
Table: Asia Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 35
Table: Singapore’s Chemicals And Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 (’000 tpa, unless otherwise stated) 38
Macroeconomic Activity 39
Table: Singapore – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 41
Company Monitor 42
ExxonMobil Chemical 42
Petrochemicals Corporation of Singapore (PCS)/Shell 44
BMI Methodology 46
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 46
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 46
Cross Checks 47
Business Environment Ratings 48
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 48
Weighting 49
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 49
Country Snapshot 50
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 51
Table: Singapore's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 52
Table: Singapore's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 53
Table: Singapore's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 53
Company Monitor
ExxonMobil Chemical
Petrochemicals Corporation of Singapore (PCS)/Shell
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