Bulgaria Telecommunications Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 87
BMI View:
Bulgaria's mobile sector contracted in Q212 in line with our view that the market is close to saturation. Although we expect positive growth over our five-year forecast period, ending 2017, we retain the view that network operators will focus more on revenue growth through high-value services in the future. We also retain a positive outlook for fixed (telephony and internet) sector, which we expect to benefit from the growing demand for converged services and the injection of much needed capital following consolidation and the arrival of new investors.
Key data:
- BMI five-year forecasts for the mobile, fixed-line and internet sectors, as well as mobile ARPU,
are extended to 2017 in this quarter's update.
- The Mobile sector contracted by 0.7% q-o-q in Q212, the first quarterly contraction since Q310.
- Market weighted average ARPU rose 4.7% q-o-q in Q212 to partly reverse a sharp decline in the previous quarter.
Risk/Reward Ratings:
Bulgaria remains in the 11th position on our Risk/Reward Ratings (RRR) table in this quarter's update,
with no change to its aggregate score from the previous quarter or its ratings in any of our four ratings categories. Bulgaria scores below the regional average in all four of our ratings categories, while the country's aggregate score of 46.7 is 2.3 points below the overall regional average. Bulgaria's lowest rating is in the Industry Rewards category where a combination of declining subscriber growth and rapidly falling ARPU are among factors impacting on its ratings.
Key Trends And Developments:
In our previous update, we highlighted how the sale of incumbent operator Vivacom dominated Bulgaria's telecoms market during the first half of 2012. During Q312, one of the groups that expressed late interest in the operator – a consortium comprising Russia's VTB Capital and Bulgaria's Corporate Commercial Bank – reached an agreement with creditor banks to buy a 70% stake in the operator.
According to local media reports, VTB/BTC will pay the banks EUR130mn while the operators EUR1.65bn debt will be written down to around EUR588mn. This development ends the hope other interested parties, including Turkcell, Telekom Austria and Deutsche Telekom-backed OTE, which had considered bidding for Vivacom. Although the telecoms capability of the new owners of Vivacom is suspect, we expect them to inject much needed capital into the operator to improve its competiveness,
especially through massive network upgrade and expansion.
Executive Summary 7
SWOT Analysis 8
Bulgaria Mobile SWOT 8
Bulgaria Wireline SWOT 9
Bulgaria Political SWOT 10
Bulgaria Economic SWOT 11
Bulgaria Business Environment SWOT 11
Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Central And Eastern Europe 12
Central And Eastern Europe Risk/Reward Ratings, Q113 15
Bulgaria 16
Industry Forecast Scenario 18
Mobile 18
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile – Historical Data & Forecasts 18
ARPU 20
Table: Telecoms Sector – Mobile ARPU, BGN – Historical Data & Forecasts 20
Fixed Line 22
Table: Telecoms Sector – Fixed Line – Historical Data & Forecasts 22
Internet 24
Table: Telecoms Sector – Internet – Historical Data & Forecasts 24
Market Overview – Mobile 26
Regional Perspective 26
Bulgaria Mobile Market Regional Comparisons, 2011 26
Key Developments 27
Mobile Growth 28
Title: Mobile Market Growth, 2010-2012 29
Market Share 29
Usage (MOU/ARPU) 32
MVNOs 32
Networks 33
3G 33
Mobile Content 35
Mobile Operator Data 38
Table: Market Overview 38
Table: Mobiltel 38
Table Globul 39
Table Vivacom 40
Mobile Content 41
Regional Outlook 41
Fixed Line 45
Broadband 48
Cable 50
WiMAX 52
IPTV And FTTx 53
Industry Trends And Developments 55
Wireline (Fixed-Line & Broadband) Developments 56
Table: Wireline Developments (2008-2010) 56
Mobile Contract Wins 57
Table: Mobile Contract Wins 57
Value-Added Services Timeline 58
Table: VAS Timeline 58
Regulatory Environment 59
Table: Bulgaria Regulatory Bodies And Responsibilities 59
Legislation 59
Regulatory Developments 60
Competitive Landscape 64
Key Players 64
Table: Key Players: Bulgaria Telecoms Sector 64
Table: Selected Operators Financial Indicators, 2003-2009 64
Operator Profiles 65
Vivacom 65
Mobiltel (M-Tel) 69
Regional Overview 72
Vendor Profile 72
Table: Revenue By Business Segment (HRK '000) 72
Table: Revenue By Geography (HRKmn) 73
Key Contracts, 2011-2012 76
Demographic Forecast 77
Section 1: Population 77
Table: Demographic Indicators, 2005-2030 77
Table: Rural/Urban Breakdown, 2005-2030 78
Section 2: Education And Healthcare 78
Table: Education, 2002-2005 78
Table: Vital Statistics, 2005-2030 78
Section 3: Labour Market And Spending Power 79
Table: Employment Indicators, 2001-2006 79
Table: Consumer Expenditure, 2000-2012 (US$) 79
Table: Average Annual Wages, 2000-2012 80
Glossary Of Terms 81
Table: Glossary Of Terms 81
BMI Methodology 82
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 82
Table: Key Indicators For Telecommunications Industry Forecasts 82
Telecoms Business Environment Ratings 84
Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 84
Ratings System 84
Indicators 84
Table: Ratings Indicators 85
Weighting 86
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 86
Sources 86
Operator Profiles
Vivacom
Mobiltel (M-Tel)
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