Egypt Petrochemicals Report Q1 2013
- ID: 2299531
- November 2012
- Region: Egypt
- 55 pages
- Business Monitor International
BMI’s latest Egypt Petrochemicals Report examines the impact of the transition to democratic civilian rule on the petrochemicals industry, but warns that market growth in 2013 will be sluggish in some segments as investors wait to see what the new government will offer in the way of economic policy. This report also looks at planned capacity expansion, which is focused on the ethylene, polyethylene (PE) and fertiliser sectors and should see Egypt become self-sufficient in certain products over the next five years.
There was a concerted effort to develop domestic capacities in the final years of President Hosni Mubarak’s rule, although production targets were not met due to a lack of investment and delays.
Nevertheless, the programmes put in place under the previous regime are likely to be completed in coming years, providing the basis for growth through the value chain. Ethylene capacity is set to rise to 1.66mn tonnes per annum (tpa) by 2016 – from the current 300,000 tpa – on the back of planned projects,
which look set to pick up as the civilian government stabilises. This will support a significant expansion of PE capacity, which should rise from 225,000 tpa to 1.58mn tpa over the forecast period.
In 2012, the main development in the country’s petrochemicals industry was the mid-year completion of Egyptian Fertilizer Company (EFC)’s debottlenecking initiatives, which led to a 20% increase in the capacity of EFC’s Line II. The completion of the upgrade programme increased EFC’s urea capacity by 250,000 tpa to 1.55mn tpa. This brought national urea capacity to 5.94mn tpa, bolstering Egypt’s position as a global supplier of chemical fertiliser.
Over the last quarter, BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- Overall, our long-term outlook for the Egyptian petrochemicals industry is increasingly bullish.
BMI believes that Egypt remains ripe for investment in petrochemicals due to the potential in its domestic market, its trading relations with other markets in Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, and the scale of its upstream resources.
- The main downside risk will be a growing and assertive civil society that may gorw more vocal over controversial projects. The external climate is also likely to prove less than favourable in the near term, with the eurozone (which absorbs one quarter of Egyptian exports) having recently entered what may prove to be a protracted recession.
- In the Middle East and Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings (RRRs), Egypt remains in ninth place with 44.4 points, down 0.4 points since the previous quarter due to a deterioration in its country risk score. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Egypt Petrochemicals Industry SWOT 6
Egypt Political SWOT 7
Egypt Economic SWOT 8
Egypt Business Environment SWOT 9
Global Petrochemicals Overview 10
Global Oil Products Price Outlook 14
Table: BMI's Refined Products Forecasts 15
Table: Middle East Outperforms In Terms of Passenger Growth 19
Africa Regional Overview 24
Table: Africa’s Gas Reserves, 2012 (bcm) 24
Table: Africa’s Oil Reserves, 2012 (bn bbl) 24
Table: Africa’s Cracker Capacity, 2011-2017 (’000 tpa) 27
Egypt Market Overview 28
Industry Trends And Developments 29
Projects And News 30
Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Middle East and Africa Regional Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 35
Table: Middle East And Africa Petrochemicals Risk/Reward Ratings 37
Industry Forecast Scenario 38
Table: Egypt Petrochemicals Sector, 2010-2017 (‘000tpa unless otherwise stated) 40
Macroeconomic Outlook 41
Table: Egypt – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 43
Company Profiles 44
Sidi Kerir Petrochemicals (Sidpec) 45
Glossary Of Terms 46
Table: Glossary Of Petrochemicals Terms 46
Country Snapshot 47
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 48
Table: Egypt's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 49
Table: Egypt's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 50
Table: Egypt's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 50
BMI Methodology 51
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 51
Chemicals And Petrochemicals Industry 51
Cross Checks 52
Business Environment Ratings 53
Table: Petrochemicals Business Environment Indicators And Rationale 53
Table: Weighting Of Indicators 54