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Iraq Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 67
BMI’s Iraq Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country’s strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that Iraq remains at serious risk of fragmentation, partly as a result of the failure of its political parties to work together, and also due to the increasingly bloody insurgency that continues to take the lives of hundreds of civilians each month.
Economically, there was some positive news in Q312, as Iraqi oil exports reached their highest point in 30 years. These are expected to double again over the next three to four years. So, if the Iraqi state can hold together, a growing public purse should result in marked improvements in security and living standards.
However, that remains a big ‘if’. A new offensive by al-Qaeda in the second half of 2012 has caused hundreds of deaths in dozens of towns and cities across the country, with the security services seemingly powerless to stop them. Regionally, Iraq remains highly vulnerable to instability in Syria and also to the designs of Iran, which continues to wield undue influence over Iraqi affairs. Internally, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has worsened sectarian tensions by failing to deliver on a promise to implement a powersharing agreement designed to safeguard the rights of the country’s different ethnic and religious groups.
The US still aims to support Iraq through arms sales and other programmes, but even this intention is being challenged by Baghdad’s failure to use all the funds that Washington has allocated for it.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- The trial in absentia of Vice President Tariq al-Hashemi ended in his conviction and sentencing to death in September. The verdict, widely regarded as biased, has strained relations between the Kurdish community to which Hashemi belongs and the Shi’a-led government, and also between Iraq and Turkey, which has given Hashemi asylum.
- Relations between the government and the Sunni majority also remain tense. Restrictions on refugees fleeing the civil war in Syria have angered Sunnis who believe more people should be given sanctuary. Meanwhile, Sunni politicians frustrated by their failure to force a vote of no-confidence in the prime minister are becoming increasingly exasperated by the political situation, with one senior Sunni minister having resigned so far.
- The latest events concerning the al-Qaeda insurgency are discussed, including a number of complex, coordinated attacks targeting members of the security services.
- Military procurements have continued, with Iraq requesting a U$428mn procurement of 12 fire control radars from the US, as procurement requests gathered pace in Q2. However, a disagreement has arisen between Washington and Baghdad about the delivery schedule for Iraqi F-16 fighters.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Iraq Security SWOT 7
Iraq Defence Industry SWOT 8
Iraq Political SWOT 9
Iraq Economic SWOT 10
Iraq Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
Middle East Security Overview 17
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 17
The Middle East In A Global Context 17
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 18
Regional Power Dynamics 28
Nuclear Proliferation 30
External Powers 31
Scenarios For The Middle East 33
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold 34
Security Risk Ratings 35
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 35
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 36
Iraq’s Security Risk Rating 36
Political Outlook 38
Domestic Politics 38
Long-Term Political Outlook 39
Iraq Security Overview 45
Internal Security Situation 45
Table: Iraq’s Insurgent Groups 48
External Security Situation 49
Armed Forces And Government Spending 52
Armed Forces 52
Market Overview 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 58
Armed Forces 58
Table: Iraq’s Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 58
Table: Iraq’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 58
Defence Expenditure 59
Table: Iraq’s Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 59
Table: Iraq’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (US$mn) 60
Defence Trade 60
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 60
Macroeconomic Activity 61
Table: Iraq – Economic Activity, 2011-2016 63
Company Profile 64
Dabin Group 64
BMI Methodology 65
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 65
Defence Industry 65