Kuwait Defence and Security Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 66
BMI's Kuwait Defence & Security Report for Q1 2013 examines the country’s strategic position in the Middle East and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.
The report examines the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The intention is to provide a clear and concise discussion of these issues. The report’s general conclusion is that Kuwait remains vulnerable to regional instability, both in the form of the civil war in Syria, and also the possible consequences of a US/Israeli attack on Iran.
The ramifications of the Arab Spring also continue to have an impact on Kuwaiti politics. Despite being relatively democratic by regional standards, Kuwait has not been unaffected by the regional wave of political reforms. Large-scale protests have continued in Kuwait throughout 2012, and the failure of the Emir to overturn the country’s electoral law has further emboldened the opposition. The country’s prodemocracy activists want Kuwait to become a constitutional monarchy, with a government no longer dominated by the ruling family. The Emir is opposed to such a transition; however, he cannot overreach in his attempts to hold onto political power for fear of provoking even wider protests that could potentially lead to his downfall. He must decide soon whether to call new elections, even though the likely outcome will be a parliament dominated by the pro-democracy opposition.
In Q3, with the threat of Iran’s ballistic missile and nuclear weapons programmes looming large, the security debate among the Gulf Arab states was very much focused on collective missile defence. Having already spelled out its future military commitment to the region, the US is now pushing for the GCC countries to start integrating their separate missile defence systems to create a region-wide missile shield.
Though defence co-operation has generally been quite basic even between allied states in the Gulf,
momentum now appears to be building towards a new US-GCC missile defence framework. For US contractors that build missile defence systems – this chiefly includes Raytheon and Lockheed Martin –
more lucrative orders are anticipated from the Gulf states.
Over the last quarter BMI has revised the following forecasts/views:
- With missile defence high on the agenda, Kuwait announced in late July that it had placed a U$4.2bn order for the latest Patriot missile system, the PAC-3. This will update its existing Patriot architecture.
- The latest anti-government protests and their implications are discussed in full, as well as the options now open to the embattled Emir.
- Recent developments in bilateral relations with neighbouring countries, chiefly Iraq and Iran, are also reviewed.
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Kuwait Security SWOT 7
Kuwait Defence Industry SWOT 8
Kuwait Political SWOT 9
Kuwait Economic SWOT 10
Kuwait Business Environment SWOT 11
Global Political Outlook 12
Middle East Security Overview 15
The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 15
The Middle East In A Global Context 15
Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 16
Regional Power Dynamics 26
Nuclear Proliferation 28
External Powers 29
Scenarios For The Middle East 31
Scenario Three: Political Liberalisation Takes Hold 32
Security Risk Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence & Security Ratings 33
Table: Middle East And Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 34
Political Overview 35
No Way Out Of The Impasse 35
Long-Term Political Outlook - Democracy: No Turning Back 37
Kuwait Security Overview 42
Internal Security Situation 42
External Security Situation 46
Latest Developments 47
Armed Forces And Government Spending 50
Armed Forces 50
Weapons Of Mass Destruction 52
Market Overview 53
Arms Trade Overview 53
Industry Trends And Developments 54
Procurement Trends And Developments 54
Procurement Background 55
Latest Developments 55
Industry Forecast Scenario 56
Armed Forces 56
Table: Kuwait's Armed Forces, 2002-2008 ('000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 56
Table: Kuwait’s Available Manpower For Military Services, 2010-2017 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 56
Defence Expenditure 56
Table: Kuwait’s Government Defence Expenditure, 2010-2017 57
Table: Kuwait’s Defence Expenditure Scenario – Changing % Of GDP, 2010-2017 (mn) 58
Defence Trade 58
Table: Kuwait’s Defence Exports, 2010-2017 (mn) 58
Table: Kuwait’s Defence Imports, 2010-2017 (mn) 59
Table: Kuwait’s Defence Trade Balance, 2010-2017 (mn) 60
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 60
Macroeconomic Outlook 61
Table: Kuwait - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 63
BMI Methodology 64
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 64
Defence Industry 64
Sources 65
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