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Mexico Renewables Report Q1 2013
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 32
The country has made significant headway in its renewables expansion, as a number of large developments have recently come online and the project pipeline continues to strengthen. However, we maintain our assessment that if Mexico is to meet the ambitious targets outlined by the legislation, a comprehensive regulatory framework will need to be put in place in order to sustain the level of investment, and thus, growth in the sector.
We previously noted that Mexico's adoption of the 'General Law on Climate Change' in June 2012 could be a turning point in the country's energy agenda, as the implementation of the new legislation has the potential to improve the outlook for renewable energy expansion. A number of recent developments within the renewables industry fall in line with this viewpoint, and we have forecast significant growth for the industry for 2012 as a number of key projects come online. Furthermore, we expect growth, albeit less pronounced, to continue throughout our forecast period (2013-2021), with an average annual growth rate for non-hydro renewables generation of 2.6% and 7.14% for non-hydro renewables capacity, as a result of a relatively healthy project pipeline.
Recent developments within the renewables industry:
- The General Law on Climate Change was sanctioned on June 5 2012, and outlines stringent CO2 emission targets of 30% 'below business-as-usual levels' by 2020, and a 50% reduction on 2000 levels by 2050. It also aims to increase renewable electricity generation so it contributes at least 35% to the total generation mix by 2024.
- In September 2012, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) and its partner Mitsubishi Electric Corporation secured a construction contract for the 50MW Los Azufres III geothermal power station, which is due to go online in December 2014.
- Enel Green Power announced in July 2012 that it had begun operations at its 74MW Bii Nee Stipa II wind farm. The project was developed in conjunction with Gamesa, at an estimated cost of US$160mn.
- In February 2012, Acciona Energía México commenced operations at its 102MW Oaxaca II wind power plant. The company's other 102MW Oaxaca III wind power plant started its operations in January 2012, while its Oaxaca IV plant was scheduled to begin commercial operations in March 2012. The three plants required approximately US$690mn in investment.
BMI Industry View: 5
SWOT Analysis 6
Mexico Renewables SWOT 6
Industry Forecast Scenario 7
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 7
Table: Mexico Total Electricity Generation Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 8
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Data And Forecasts, 2010 - 2017 10
Table: Mexico Electricity Generating Capacity Long Term Forecasts, 2014 - 2021 11
Renewables Projects Database 16
Table: Mexico Key Projects 16
Sustainable Energy Policy and Infrastructure 18
Risk Reward Ratings 21
Mexico Renewables Risk/Reward Ratings 21
Competitive Landscape 23
Comisión Federal de Electricidad 23
Acciona Energia Mexico 23
Gamesa Corporación Technólgica 24
Glossary of Terms 25
Table: Glossary of Terms 25
Methodology and Sources 26
Industry Forecasts 26
Renewables Industry - Data Methodology 27
Generation Data 27
Electricity Generation Capacity Data 27
Power Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 28
Table: Power Risk/Reward Indicators 30