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Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2012 Product Image

Uganda Defence and Security Report Q4 2012

  • Published: November 2012
  • 76 pages
  • Business Monitor International

BMI’s Uganda Defence & Security Report for Q4 2012 examines the country’s strategic position in the African region and the wider world. It provides an overview of the contemporary geopolitical challenges facing the country, and the challenges it may face in the future.

The report analyses the trends occurring in the country’s current and future defence procurement, and the order of battle across its armed forces. The report’s general conclusion is that Uganda’s long-serving President Yoweri Museveni is determined that his country should play a leading role in regional security affairs. The effects of this policy will be twofold: a high-profile Ugandan presence in regional peacekeeping and the procurement of increasingly advanced military equipment.

In Q2 2012, Uganda continued to play a pivotal role in two important regional missions. The first is the AMISOM mission in Somalia, where Uganda is the largest troop contributor. The second is the African Union task force to destroy Joseph Kony’s Lord’s Resistance Army. There is also a very real possibility of Uganda becoming embroiled in conflict in South Sudan, with Museveni positioning READ MORE >

Executive Summary 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Uganda Security SWOT 7

Uganda Defence Industry SWOT 8

Uganda Political SWOT 8

Uganda Economic SWOT 9

Uganda Business Environment SWOT 10

Global Political Outlook 11

Middle East Security Overview 14

The Strategic Outlook For The 2010s 14

The Middle East In A Global Context 14

Challenges And Threats To Stability And Security 15

Regional Power Dynamics 25

Nuclear Proliferation 27

External Powers 28

Scenarios For The Middle East 29

Security Risk Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And Africa Defence And Security Ratings 32
Table: Middle East And North Africa State Vulnerability To Terrorism Index 33

Political Overview 34

Long-Term Political Outlook 36

Uganda’s Security Overview 39

Internal Security Situation 39

The Karamojong 39

The Allied Democratic Forces 40

The Lord’s Resistance Army 41

2011 Presidential Election 44

Political Unrest 45

Anti-Homosexual Violence 47

New Threats 47

Terrorism 48

External Security Situation 50

Sudan 50

Côte d’Ivoire 51

Central African Republic 51

United States 53

Kenya 53

Armed Forces And Government Spending 55

Armed Forces 55

International Deployments 58

Latest Developments 59

Market Overview 60

Arms Trade Overview 61

Procurement Trends And Developments 63

Industry Forecast Scenario 65

Armed Forces 65
Table: Uganda’s Armed Forces, 2000-2007 (’000 personnel, unless otherwise stated) 65
Table: Uganda’s Manpower Available For Military Service, 2009-2016 (aged 16-49, unless otherwise stated) 65

Government Expenditure 66
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 66
Table: Uganda’s Defence Expenditure, 2009-2016 67

Defence Trade 68
Table: Uganda’s Defence Imports, 2009-2016 (US$mn, unless otherwise stated) 68

Debt Relief Initiatives 68

Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 70

Macroeconomic Forecast 71
Table: Uganda – Economic Activity 73

BMI Methodology 74

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 74

Defence Industry 74

Sources 75

Format Properties
Electronic (PDF) The report will be emailed to you. The report is sent in PDF format. This is a single user license, allowing one specific user access to the product.
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