United Arab Emirates Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012
Business Monitor International, November 2012, Pages: 79
BMI View:
The UAE has delivered on its stated ambitions to raise sustainable oil production capacity to 2.7-2.8mn b/d, compensating for missing Iranian barrels. Further increases are likely to materialise by year-end 2012. Meanwhile, the start of commercial oil exports through the Fujairah pipeline marks a significant new stage in the UAE’s export capabilities.
We highlight the following trends and developments in the UAE’s oil and gas sector:
- Our view is that the UAE’s proven oil reserves will slip gradually over the period to 2016,
dropping to 91.3bn barrels (bbl) from the end-2011 total of 96.7bn, and this will fall in subsequent years to 85.3bn by 2021.
- With around 1mn barrels per day (b/d) of Iranian crude removed from the market due to sanctions, the UAE is one of the countries that are taking up the slack – taking advantage of investment in production capacity. Output in mid-2012 has averaged 2.7mn b/d, with overall sustainable production capacity at 2.8mn b/d.
- Gas production will get a big mid-decade boost from the start-up of the Shah sour gas project.
By 2016, we see output of around 67bn cubic metres (bcm), rising to 74bcm by 2021.
- A further 200,000b/d of output is expected by Q412, bringing total production capacity above 3mn b/d. Abu Dhabi is planning to spend US$60bn over the next five years to raise production capacity above 3.5mn b/d. The increase in production capacity has helped support an increase in 2012 oil production; UAE crude output in August 2012 was estimated at 2.7mn b/d.
- A major ongoing sour gas project should help boost domestic production of gas, as consumption doubles in the period 2010-2020. The US$10bn Shah sour gas project will add 9,8bcm of gas capacity when it comes onstream in 2015.
- Liberalisation of fuel prices is unlikely in the short term, owing to the government largesse following political unrest across the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region in 2011.
Fuels distribution in the UAE will therefore remain a loss-making proposition.
Discussions are ongoing with regard to changes in contractual terms on offer for international oil companies (IOCs) involved in ADNOC field developments. Foreign companies are arguing for improved per barrel terms, currently estimated at just US$1.
BMI Industry View 5
SWOT Analysis 6
UAE Oil and Gas SWOT 6
Global Energy Market Outlook 7
Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 9
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 11
Regional Energy Market Outlook 15
United Arab Emirates Energy Market Overview 22
Table: Upstream Projects Database 22
Industry Forecast Scenario 26
Table: United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 26
Table: United Arab Emirates Oil & Gas – Long Term Forecast, 2014 – 2021 27
Oil and Gas Reserves 28
Oil Supply and Demand 28
Gas Supply And Demand 30
LNG 31
Refining And Oil Products Trade 32
Revenues/Import Costs 32
Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 33
Oil and Gas Infrastructure 34
Oil Refineries 34
Table: Refineries In The UAE 34
Oil Pipelines 36
LNG 36
Table: LNG Export Terminals in the UAE 37
Gas Pipelines 37
Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 40
UAE Upstream Rating – Overview 41
UAE Upstream Rating – Rewards 41
UAE Upstream Rating – Risks 41
UAE Downstream Rating – Overview 41
Competitive Landscape 42
Executive Summary 42
Table: Key Domestic And Foreign Companies In The UAE’s Oil & Gas Sector 43
Overview/State Role 43
Licensing And Regulation 44
Government Policy 45
International Energy Relations 45
Table: Key Upstream Players 47
Table: Key Downstream Players 47
Company Monitor 48
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) 48
Dolphin Energy 52
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation (Emarat) 54
Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC) 56
ExxonMobil 58
BP – Summary 60
Rosneft – Summary 60
Total – Summary 61
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary 61
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary 61
Dana Gas – Summary 62
Occidental Petroleum – Summary 63
Japan Oil Development Company (JODCO) – Summary 63
Cosmo Oil – Summary 63
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) – Summary 63
CNPC – Summary 64
RAK Petroleum – Summary 64
Middle East – Regional Appendix 65
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 65
Table: Oil Consumption, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 65
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 66
Table: Oil Production, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 66
Table : Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 66
Table: Refining Capacity, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 67
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) 67
Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) 68
Table: Gas Production, 2014-2021 (bcm) 69
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm) 69
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2014-2021 (bcm) 69
Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 70
Glossary Of Terms 71
Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 73
Ratings Overview 73
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 74
Indicators 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 74
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 75
BMI Methodology 77
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 77
Energy Industry 77
Cross checks 78
Sources 78
Company Monitor
Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC)
Dolphin Energy
Emirates General Petroleum Corporation (Emarat)
Emirates National Oil Company (ENOC)
ExxonMobil
BP – Summary
Rosneft – Summary
Total – Summary
Royal Dutch Shell – Summary
Korea National Oil Corporation – Summary
Dana Gas – Summary
Occidental Petroleum – Summary
Japan Oil Development Company (JODCO) – Summary
Cosmo Oil – Summary
Abu Dhabi National Energy Company (TAQA) – Summary
CNPC – Summary
RAK Petroleum – Summary
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