Vietnam Consumer Electronics Report Q4 2012
- ID: 2299553
- November 2012
- Region: Vietnam
- 60 pages
- Business Monitor International
We project that Vietnam consumer electronics spending will grow by about 19% in US dollar terms in 2012 to US$5.5bn. In Q112, sales of PCs, feature phones and smartphones were all down by a double-digit factor compared with the final quarter of 2011. Economic uncertainty exacerbated the usual decline in consumer spending following the Lunar New Year peak shopping season.
However, the country’s vast, underpenetrated rural market offers the most growth potential, with Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City accounting for most sales. In 2011 Vietnamese retail demand for consumer electronics products grew robustly, despite pressure on consumer incomes from rising inflation. Growth areas include smartphones, where a surge in demand has been fuelled by lower prices, and flatscreen TV sets, which now comprise more than two-thirds of TV set sales.
Headline Expenditure Projections:
- Computer hardware sales: US$1.6bn in 2011 to US$1.8bn in 2012, +13% in US dollar terms.
Forecast in US dollar terms is unchanged, but due to lower prices tablets are expected to provide a strong growth area in 2012. AV sales: US$1.2bn in 2011 to US$1.4bn in 2012, +15% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with flat-screen TV sets expected to provide the most dynamic development.
- Handset sales: US$1.6bn in 2011 to US$2.0bn in 2012, +29% in US dollar terms. Forecast in US dollar terms unchanged, with Android smartphones and low-cost feature phones the main revenue growth driver.
Business Environment Rating:
Vietnam’s score was 41.7 out of 100.0, which gave it an unchanged twelfth place in our latest Asia CE RRR table. BMI expects Vietnam to attain a higher place in our rankings over time due to the rising penetration of consumer electronics devices such as smartphones and flat-screen TV sets.
Key Trends & Developments:
- The growth in smartphone sales has been fuelled by the popularity of Android-based models,
which have continued to be popular in 2012, and according to vendor estimates, accounts for above 70% of smartphone sales in Q112. Although the operating system landscape is becoming increasingly competitive, we expect Android to retain its top position over our forecast period.
The overall handset growth rate in 2011 was estimated at around 22%, while smartphones recorded triple-digit growth and comprised around one-quarter of the market.
- Demand for LCD and plasma TV sets will drive AV growth. TV upgrades should be spurred by Vietnam’s gradual progress towards digital TV broadcasting, which is supposed be available nationally by 2020. In April 2010, the government published a draft plan for the digital migration, which set out a number of key targets, including assistance for people to buy digital TV equipment.
- Currently, Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City are understood to account for around 85% of notebook sales. The spread of fixed and mobile broadband services will spur purchases of mobile PCs as connectivity devices. As elsewhere, telecoms operators such as Viettel are emerging as significant distribution channels for notebooks as vendors seek tie-ups. SHOW LESS READ MORE >
Executive Summary 5
SWOT Analysis 7
Vietnam Consumer Electronics Market SWOT 7
Vietnam Electronics Industry SWOT 8
Vietnam Political SWOT 9
Vietnam Economic SWOT 10
Vietnam Business Environment SWOT 11
Asia Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings 12
Table: Asia-Pacific Risk/Reward Ratings, Q412 14
Consumer Electronics Market 15
Table: Computers: Demand, 2008-2016 16
AV Devices 20
Table: AV – Demand, 2009-2016 21
Mobile Handsets 22
Table: Mobile Handsets: Demand, 2008-2016 23
Consumer Electronics Industry 28
Table: Electronics Output, 2008-2016 29
Electronics Trade 29
Table: Vietnam Desktop Production (‘000 units) 33
Table: Computers: Production, 2008-2016 33
AV and Communications 34
Table: Communications: Production, 2008-2016 34
Industry Forecast Scenario 37
Table: Consumer Electronics Overview; 2008-2016 38
Industry Trends And Developments 40
Government PC Programmes 40
Government Authority 42
Macroeconomic Forecast 44
Table: Vietnam - Economic Activity, 2011-2016 46
Competitive Landscape 47
AV Devices 49
Country Snapshot 54
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 ('000) 55
Table: Vietnam's Population By Age Group, 1990-2020 (% of total) 56
Table: Vietnam's Key Population Ratios, 1990-2020 57
Table: Vietnam's Rural And Urban Population, 1990-2020 57
BMI Methodology 58
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 58
Electronics Industry 58