Russia Mining Report Q4 2012

  • ID: 2299563
  • November 2012
  • Region: Russia
  • 78 pages
  • Business Monitor International
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  • Company Profiles
  • Norilsk Nickel
  • Polymetal International
  • SUEK
  • MORE

BMI View:

We expect Russia's mining industry value to reach RUB4.72trn (US$152bn) by 2016. We believe strong growth in 2009 to 2011 will be followed by years of stagnation as palladium and platinum production growth in the country practically ceases from 2012 onwards. Nevertheless, we have a positive view on the Russian mining industry given the country's vast unexplored mineral resources. The coal sector is promising as the government plans to invest RUB3.7trn (US$120bn) on the sector from 2012 to 2030. As for platinum and palladium, we do not expect significant growth in the sector given Norilsk Nickel's plans.

The government will maintain a strong influence on the industry. For example, total palladium supply from Russia is complicated by palladium sales from government stockpiles which are very large relative to primary production. Foreign firms are also restricted in investing in the industry. Companies seeking to develop a 'strategic resource', defined as a region with more than 1.6mn ounces of gold and 500kt ('000 tonnes) of copper, must seek permission from a government commission. Diamonds, uranium, cobalt,
nickel, lithium, the platinum group metals (PGM), READ MORE >

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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  • Company Profiles
  • Norilsk Nickel
  • Polymetal International
  • SUEK
  • MORE

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 7

Russia Mining Sector SWOT Analysis 7

Russia Business Environment SWOT Analysis 8

Global Mining Outlook 9
Table: Recent Tax Increases 12
Table: Largest Coal Projects 14
Table: Major Frontier Mining Projects 15

Europe Mining Sector Outlook 16
Table: Major Nordic Mining Projects 19
Table: Key Gold Projects In Eastern Europe 20

Market Overview 21
Table: Russia – Valuation And Production Forecasts, 2009-2016 23

Industry Forecasts 24

Coal: Kuzbass To Underpin Production Growth 24
Table: Russia - Coal Production, 2009-2016 28

Iron Ore: Little Impetus For Output Growth 29
Table: Russia – Largest Iron Ore Projects 30
Table: Russia - Iron Ore Production, 2009-2016 33

Nickel: Growth To Slow As Norilsk Cuts Investment Target 34
Table: Russia – Largest Nickel Projects 35
Table: Russia – Nickel Production , 2009-2016 36

Palladium: Production To Remain Flat 37
Table: Russia - Largest Palladium Projects 38
Table: Russia – Palladium Production, 2009-2016 38

Platinum: Growth To Slow As Norilsk Lowers Output 39
Table: Russia – Largest Platinum Projects 40
Table: Russia - Platinum Production ,2009-2016 41

Regulatory Developments 42

Europe Business Environment Ratings 44
Table: Mining Business Environment Risk/Reward Ratings 45

Competitive Landscape 48
Table: Russia - Largest Mining Projects 48
Table: Russia - Comparative Metrics 49

Company Profiles 50

Norilsk Nickel 50
Table: Norilsk Nickel - Financial Data, 2006-2011 53

Polymetal International 54

Table: SUEK - Financial Results, 2007-2011 59

Commodity Strategy 60

Monthly Metals Update 60

Iron Ore: No Return To Highs 62

Steel: Limited Rebound Ahead 64

Aluminium: Further Gains Ahead 65

Copper: Relative Outperformer But Still Weak 67

Lead: Heading For Weakness 69

Nickel: Gains To Disappear 70

Tin: Major Gains Behind, But Outperformance To Continue 72

Zinc: Little Room For Optimism 73
Table: Select Commodities - Performance & BMI Forecasts 74

Business Environment Ratings Methodology 75
Table: Mining Business Environment Indicators 76
Table: Weighting Of Components 77

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
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Company Profiles
Norilsk Nickel
Polymetal International

Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown
4 of 4
Note: Product cover images may vary from those shown


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