Saudi Arabia Oil and Gas Report Q4 2012

BMI View:

While refinery expansion is proceeding broadly to schedule, Saudi Arabia cannot claim the same about its gas exploration and development programme. Drilling has again been delayed in the Empty Quarter, which is a further sign of a frustrating process that may leave the Kingdom short of gas as demand continues to rise. There has been little apparent progress on plans to boost productive capacity from the current 12mn barrels per day (b/d) to 14-15mn b/d.

We highlight these trends and developments in Saudi Arabia’s oil & gas sector:

- After reaching 10.1mn b/d in July 2012, Saudi crude production is believed to have edged a fraction lower in August as Asian demand dried up. With domestic consumption moving higher,
Saudi Arabia’s output could creep above 10.2mn b/d, in spite of a commitment from OPEC to maintain its existing production quotas.

- BMI expects Saudi crude production alone to have reached almost 11.1mn b/d by 2021, with the slow rise symptomatic of a desire to control oil prices and maintain relative market tightness.

Total liquids supply by the end of the forecast period is set to reach around 13.2mn b/d.

- Oil consumption is expected to rise by about 1.1mn b/d during the period to 2021, with much of the increase driven by the rising utilisation of crude oil for power generation.

- We expect Saudi Arabia to remain self-sufficient in natural gas, with production and consumption rising from an estimated 94.8bn cubic metres (bcm) in 2011 to 131bcm by 2021.

Greater exploration of the Red Sea and prospects for tight gas production could bode well for gas reserves, although progress in the so-called Empty Quarter remains slow.

- Sino Saudi Gas, a joint venture (JV) between China's state-controlled Sinopec and Saudi Arabia’s state-owned Saudi Aramco, in August 2012 announced a delay in plans to drill for gas in the Empty Quarter. The delay was attributed to the need to further evaluate the 'economic and technical aspects of the well' according to an unnamed Sinopec executive quoted by Reuters.

- The advancement of refinery projects could turn Saudi Arabia into a gasoline exporter, while petrochemicals producers continue to take advantage of cheap feedstock (gas, naphtha).

We are assuming an average OPEC basket oil price for 2012 of US$107.05/bbl, falling to US$99.10 in 2013. By 2016, we expect the price to average US$93.25, edging lower to US$91.50/bbl by 2021.

Based on these assumptions and BMI’s production forecasts, Saudi Arabia’s oil revenues should decrease from an estimated US$334.5bn in 2012 to US$301.1bn by 2021. SHOW LESS READ MORE >

BMI Industry View 5

SWOT Analysis 6

Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas SWOT 6

Global Energy Market Outlook 7

Oil: Getting Closer To Emerging Markets Inflection Point 7
Table: Oil Consumption Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 9
Table: Oil Production Forecasts, 2010-2016 (’000b/d) 11

Regional Energy Market Outlook 15

Saudi Arabia Energy Market Overview 22
Table: Upstream Projects Database 23

Industry Forecast Scenario 25
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas – Historical Data And Forecasts, 2009-2016 25
Table: Saudi Arabia Oil & Gas – Long Term Forecast, 2014 - 2021 26

Oil & Gas Reserves 27

Oil Supply And Demand 28

Gas Supply And Demand 29

Refining And Oil Products Trade 30

Revenues/Import Costs 30

Key Risks To our Forecast Scenario 30

Oil & Gas Infrastructure 31

Oil Refineries 31
Table: Refineries In Saudi Arabia 31

Oil Processing Facilities 34

Service Stations 34

Oil Terminals/Ports 35

Oil Pipelines 35

Gas Pipelines 37

Regional and Country Risk/Reward Ratings 38
Table: Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 39
Table: Middle East Upstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 40
Table: Middle East Downstream Oil and Gas Risk/Reward Ratings 40

Saudi Upstream Rating – Overview 41

Saudi Upstream Rating – Rewards 41

Saudi Upstream Rating – Risks 41

Saudi Downstream Rating – Overview 41

Competitive Landscape 42
Table: Key Players In Saudi Arabia’s Oil & Gas Sector 43

Overview/State Role 43

Licensing And Regulation 44

Government Policy 44

International Energy Relations 45

Relations With India 45

Relations With Bahrain 45

Relations With Kuwait 45

Relations With China 46
Table: Key Upstream Players 46
Table: Key Downstream Players 47

Company Monitor 48

Saudi Aramco 48

Shell Saudi Arabia 51

ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia 53

Chevron 55

Total – Summary 57

Eni – Summary 57

ConocoPhillips – Summary 58

BP – Summary 58

Repsol – Summary 58

Lukoil – Summary 58

Sinopec – Summary 58

Sumitomo – Summary 59

Middle East – Regional Appendix 60
Table: Oil Consumption, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 60
Table: Oil Consumption, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 60
Table: Oil Production, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 61
Table: Oil Production, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 61

Table : Refining Capacity, 2009-2016 (’000b/d) 61
Table: Refining Capacity, 2014-2021 (’000b/d) 62
Table: Gas Consumption, 2009-2016 (bcm) 62
Table: Gas Consumption, 2014-2021 (bcm) 63
Table: Gas Production, 2009-2016 (bcm) 63
Table: Gas Production, 2014-2021 (bcm) 64
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2009-2016 (bcm) 64
Table: Net LNG Exports, 2014-2021 (bcm) 64

Methodology And Risks To Forecasts 65

Glossary Of Terms 66
Table: Glossary Of Terms 66

Oil And Gas Risk/Reward Ratings Methodology 68

Ratings Overview 68
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Ratings – Structure 69

Indicators 69
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Upstream Ratings – Methodology 69
Table: BMI’s Oil & Gas Business Environment Downstream Ratings – Methodology 70

BMI Methodology 72

How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts 72

Energy Industry 72

Cross checks 73

Sources 73

Company Monitor
Saudi Aramco
Shell Saudi Arabia
ExxonMobil Saudi Arabia
Chevron
Total – Summary
Eni – Summary
ConocoPhillips – Summary
BP – Summary
Repsol – Summary
Lukoil – Summary
Sinopec – Summary
Sumitomo – Summary